Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Toronto FC
27%
Draw
28%
Nashville SC
46%
Actual result: Toronto FC 2 – 1 Nashville SC · Toronto FC winJarvis gave this outcome: 27%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Toronto FC, negative favours Nashville SC) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Toronto FC - Nashville SC)-0.41
Expected total goals2.74
Expected goals Toronto FC / Nashville SC1.16 / 1.57
Both teams to score (yes / no)55.8% / 44.2%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 77.1%
Over 2.5 goals 51.5%
Over 3.5 goals 29.4%
First half
First-half result (Toronto FC / draw / Nashville SC)22.4% / 43.6% / 34.1%
A goal in the first half69.5%
Two or more in the first half36.1%
Half-time then full-time
Nashville SC lead at half-time then Nashville SC win27.9%
Level at half-time then draw17.1%
Level at half-time then Nashville SC win16.1%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Toronto FC's side
Toronto FC −2.07.4%
Toronto FC −1.759.3%
Toronto FC −1.511.2%
Toronto FC −1.2515.1%
Toronto FC −1.019.0%
Toronto FC −0.7522.8%
Toronto FC −0.526.7%
Toronto FC −0.2533.7%
Toronto FC draw no bet (0.0)40.6%
Toronto FC +0.2547.5%
Toronto FC +0.554.5%
Toronto FC +0.7559.8%
Toronto FC +1.065.2%
Toronto FC +1.576.0%
Toronto FC +2.083.1%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Toronto FC win3.74
Draw3.60
Nashville SC win2.20
Over 2.51.94
Under 2.52.06
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Toronto FC wins by more than 1 goals11%
Nashville SC wins by more than 1 goals24%