Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Toulouse
22%
Draw
27%
Lille
51%
Actual result: Toulouse 0 – 1 Lille · Lille winJarvis gave this outcome: 51% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Toulouse, negative favours Lille) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Toulouse - Lille)-0.64
Expected total goals2.67
Expected goals Toulouse / Lille1.02 / 1.66
Both teams to score (yes / no)53.1% / 46.9%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 76.1%
Over 2.5 goals 50.0%
Over 3.5 goals 28.0%
First half
First-half result (Toulouse / draw / Lille)19.0% / 43.8% / 37.2%
A goal in the first half68.7%
Two or more in the first half35.2%
Half-time then full-time
Lille lead at half-time then Lille win31.6%
Level at half-time then Lille win17.8%
Level at half-time then draw17.2%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Toulouse's side
Toulouse −2.05.4%
Toulouse −1.756.9%
Toulouse −1.58.4%
Toulouse −1.2511.7%
Toulouse −1.015.1%
Toulouse −0.7518.4%
Toulouse −0.521.8%
Toulouse −0.2528.6%
Toulouse draw no bet (0.0)35.5%
Toulouse +0.2542.3%
Toulouse +0.549.2%
Toulouse +0.7554.8%
Toulouse +1.060.5%
Toulouse +1.571.9%
Toulouse +2.079.9%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Toulouse win4.59
Draw3.65
Lille win1.97
Over 2.52.00
Under 2.52.00
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Toulouse wins by more than 1 goals8%
Lille wins by more than 1 goals28%
Corners
Expected total corners9.5
6.5+ corners in the match48%
Cards
Expected total cards3.4
2.5+ cards in the match45%