Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Trabzonspor
31%
Draw
27%
Galatasaray
42%
Actual result: Trabzonspor 4 – 0 Galatasaray · Trabzonspor winJarvis gave this outcome: 31%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Trabzonspor, negative favours Galatasaray) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Trabzonspor - Galatasaray)-0.26
Expected total goals3.10
Expected goals Trabzonspor / Galatasaray1.42 / 1.68
Both teams to score (yes / no)63.4% / 36.6%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 83.3%
Over 2.5 goals 59.9%
Over 3.5 goals 37.6%
First half
First-half result (Trabzonspor / draw / Galatasaray)25.4% / 42.1% / 32.5%
A goal in the first half73.3%
Two or more in the first half42.6%
Half-time then full-time
Galatasaray lead at half-time then Galatasaray win25.9%
Trabzonspor lead at half-time then Trabzonspor win18.2%
Level at half-time then draw16.0%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Trabzonspor's side
Trabzonspor −2.010.1%
Trabzonspor −1.7512.4%
Trabzonspor −1.514.8%
Trabzonspor −1.2518.8%
Trabzonspor −1.022.8%
Trabzonspor −0.7526.7%
Trabzonspor −0.530.7%
Trabzonspor −0.2537.5%
Trabzonspor draw no bet (0.0)44.3%
Trabzonspor +0.2551.0%
Trabzonspor +0.557.8%
Trabzonspor +0.7562.6%
Trabzonspor +1.067.5%
Trabzonspor +1.577.1%
Trabzonspor +2.083.7%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Trabzonspor win3.25
Draw3.69
Galatasaray win2.37
Over 2.51.67
Under 2.52.50
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Trabzonspor wins by more than 1 goals15%
Galatasaray wins by more than 1 goals23%