Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Turkey
11%
Draw
17%
France
72%
Actual result: Turkey 0 – 1 France · France winJarvis gave this outcome: 72% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Turkey, negative favours France) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Turkey - France)-1.65
Expected total goals3.61
Expected goals Turkey / France0.98 / 2.63
Both teams to score (yes / no)58.3% / 41.7%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 87.9%
Over 2.5 goals 69.8%
Over 3.5 goals 48.6%
First half
First-half result (Turkey / draw / France)13.1% / 32.7% / 54.2%
A goal in the first half79.6%
Two or more in the first half48.9%
Half-time then full-time
France lead at half-time then France win49.8%
Level at half-time then France win19.3%
Level at half-time then draw9.2%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Turkey's side
Turkey −2.02.4%
Turkey −1.753.1%
Turkey −1.53.8%
Turkey −1.255.7%
Turkey −1.07.5%
Turkey −0.759.4%
Turkey −0.511.2%
Turkey −0.2515.4%
Turkey draw no bet (0.0)19.5%
Turkey +0.2523.6%
Turkey +0.527.8%
Turkey +0.7533.0%
Turkey +1.038.2%
Turkey +1.548.5%
Turkey +2.058.8%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Turkey win8.90
Draw6.05
France win1.38
Over 2.51.43
Under 2.53.32
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Turkey wins by more than 1 goals4%
France wins by more than 1 goals51%
Corners
Expected total corners9.9
6.5+ corners in the match53%
Cards
Expected total cards2.0
2.5+ cards in the match33%