Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Turkey
34%
Draw
29%
Italy
38%
Actual result: Turkey 1 – 4 Italy · Italy winJarvis gave this outcome: 38% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Turkey, negative favours Italy) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Turkey - Italy)-0.09
Expected total goals2.93
Expected goals Turkey / Italy1.42 / 1.51
Both teams to score (yes / no)61.1% / 38.9%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 81.0%
Over 2.5 goals 56.0%
Over 3.5 goals 33.6%
First half
First-half result (Turkey / draw / Italy)26.8% / 43.9% / 29.3%
A goal in the first half71.1%
Two or more in the first half40.0%
Half-time then full-time
Italy lead at half-time then Italy win22.8%
Turkey lead at half-time then Turkey win20.1%
Level at half-time then draw17.5%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Turkey's side
Turkey −2.011.3%
Turkey −1.7513.9%
Turkey −1.516.5%
Turkey −1.2520.7%
Turkey −1.025.0%
Turkey −0.7529.3%
Turkey −0.533.6%
Turkey −0.2540.8%
Turkey draw no bet (0.0)48.0%
Turkey +0.2555.1%
Turkey +0.562.3%
Turkey +0.7566.9%
Turkey +1.071.5%
Turkey +1.580.7%
Turkey +2.086.6%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Turkey win2.98
Draw3.48
Italy win2.65
Over 2.51.79
Under 2.52.27
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Turkey wins by more than 1 goals16%
Italy wins by more than 1 goals19%
Corners
Expected total corners9.2
6.5+ corners in the match44%
Cards
Expected total cards3.9
2.5+ cards in the match54%