Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Ukraine
35%
Draw
32%
Hungary
33%
Actual result: Ukraine 1 – 2 Hungary · Hungary winJarvis gave this outcome: 33%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Ukraine, negative favours Hungary) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Ukraine - Hungary)+0.05
Expected total goals2.25
Expected goals Ukraine / Hungary1.15 / 1.10
Both teams to score (yes / no)47.5% / 52.5%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 67.6%
Over 2.5 goals 39.2%
Over 3.5 goals 19.1%
First half
First-half result (Ukraine / draw / Hungary)26.3% / 48.7% / 25.0%
A goal in the first half62.5%
Two or more in the first half28.2%
Half-time then full-time
Level at half-time then draw21.5%
Ukraine lead at half-time then Ukraine win20.5%
Hungary lead at half-time then Hungary win19.0%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Ukraine's side
Ukraine −2.010.1%
Ukraine −1.7512.6%
Ukraine −1.515.2%
Ukraine −1.2520.2%
Ukraine −1.025.1%
Ukraine −0.7530.1%
Ukraine −0.535.0%
Ukraine −0.2543.1%
Ukraine draw no bet (0.0)51.1%
Ukraine +0.2559.2%
Ukraine +0.567.3%
Ukraine +0.7572.0%
Ukraine +1.076.7%
Ukraine +1.586.2%
Ukraine +2.091.0%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Ukraine win2.86
Draw3.10
Hungary win3.05
Over 2.52.55
Under 2.51.64
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Ukraine wins by more than 1 goals15%
Hungary wins by more than 1 goals14%
Corners
Expected total corners8.2
6.5+ corners in the match44%
Cards
Expected total cards4.3
2.5+ cards in the match43%