Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Ukraine
46%
Draw
32%
Northern Ireland
22%
Actual result: Ukraine 0 – 3 Northern Ireland · Northern Ireland winJarvis gave this outcome: 22%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Ukraine, negative favours Northern Ireland) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Ukraine - Northern Ireland)+0.47
Expected total goals2.03
Expected goals Ukraine / Northern Ireland1.25 / 0.78
Both teams to score (yes / no)39.6% / 60.4%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 61.1%
Over 2.5 goals 33.0%
Over 3.5 goals 14.7%
First half
First-half result (Ukraine / draw / Northern Ireland)32.3% / 49.8% / 17.9%
A goal in the first half59.2%
Two or more in the first half23.8%
Half-time then full-time
Ukraine lead at half-time then Ukraine win27.4%
Level at half-time then draw22.3%
Level at half-time then Ukraine win17.9%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Ukraine's side
Ukraine −2.014.4%
Ukraine −1.7517.9%
Ukraine −1.521.4%
Ukraine −1.2527.6%
Ukraine −1.033.8%
Ukraine −0.7540.0%
Ukraine −0.546.2%
Ukraine −0.2554.1%
Ukraine draw no bet (0.0)62.0%
Ukraine +0.2569.9%
Ukraine +0.577.8%
Ukraine +0.7581.5%
Ukraine +1.085.3%
Ukraine +1.592.9%
Ukraine +2.095.6%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Ukraine win2.16
Draw3.17
Northern Ireland win4.50
Over 2.53.03
Under 2.51.49
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Ukraine wins by more than 1 goals21%
Northern Ireland wins by more than 1 goals7%
Corners
Expected total corners8.2
6.5+ corners in the match44%
Cards
Expected total cards2.8
2.5+ cards in the match53%