FIFA World Cup
United States vs Paraguay prediction
United States
4 – 1
Full-time
Paraguay
Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
United States
49%
Draw
28%
Paraguay
23%
Actual result: United States 4 – 1 Paraguay · United States winJarvis gave this outcome: 49% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours United States, negative favours Paraguay) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (United States - Paraguay)+0.56
Expected total goals2.50
Expected goals United States / Paraguay1.53 / 0.97
Both teams to score (yes / no)50.0% / 50.0%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 72.6%
Over 2.5 goals 45.6%
Over 3.5 goals 24.2%
First half
First-half result (United States / draw / Paraguay)35.6% / 45.2% / 19.2%
A goal in the first half66.4%
Two or more in the first half32.1%
Half-time then full-time
United States ahead then United States win30.1%
level then draw18.3%
level then United States win17.6%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Quoted from United States
United States give 2 trái (−2.0)18.2%
United States give 1 trái 3/4 (−1.75)22.0%
United States give 1 trái rưỡi (−1.5)25.9%
United States give 1 trái 1/4 (−1.25)31.7%
United States give 1 trái (−1.0)37.4%
United States give 3/4 trái (−0.75)43.2%
United States give nửa trái (−0.5)49.0%
United States give 1/4 trái (−0.25)56.1%
Level ball (0.0)63.2%
United States receive 1/4 trái (+0.25)70.4%
United States receive nửa trái (+0.5)77.5%
United States receive 3/4 trái (+0.75)81.0%
United States receive 1 trái (+1.0)84.5%
United States receive 1 trái rưỡi (+1.5)91.6%
United States receive 2 trái (+2.0)94.7%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
United States win2.04
Draw3.52
Paraguay win4.44
Over 2.52.19
Under 2.51.84
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Most likely scorelines
1–1
13.5%
1–0
11.2%
2–0
9.6%
0–0
9.6%
2–1
9.3%
0–1
6.6%
Goal margin
United States wins by more than 1 goals26%
Paraguay wins by more than 1 goals8%