Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Wales
13%
Draw
19%
Norway
67%
Actual result: Wales 2 – 1 Norway · Wales winJarvis gave this outcome: 13%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Wales, negative favours Norway) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Wales - Norway)-1.32
Expected total goals3.07
Expected goals Wales / Norway0.87 / 2.19
Both teams to score (yes / no)52.1% / 47.9%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 81.4%
Over 2.5 goals 59.2%
Over 3.5 goals 36.8%
First half
First-half result (Wales / draw / Norway)14.1% / 36.6% / 49.3%
A goal in the first half74.5%
Two or more in the first half40.5%
Half-time then full-time
Norway lead at half-time then Norway win44.6%
Level at half-time then Norway win19.7%
Level at half-time then draw11.6%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Wales's side
Wales −2.02.6%
Wales −1.753.4%
Wales −1.54.2%
Wales −1.256.5%
Wales −1.08.8%
Wales −0.7511.1%
Wales −0.513.4%
Wales −0.2518.2%
Wales draw no bet (0.0)23.1%
Wales +0.2528.0%
Wales +0.532.9%
Wales +0.7538.7%
Wales +1.044.5%
Wales +1.556.2%
Wales +2.066.4%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Wales win7.48
Draw5.13
Norway win1.49
Over 2.51.69
Under 2.52.45
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Wales wins by more than 1 goals4%
Norway wins by more than 1 goals44%
Corners
Expected total corners9.3
6.5+ corners in the match45%
Cards
Expected total cards3.0
2.5+ cards in the match57%