Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
West Brom
52%
Draw
27%
Watford
21%
Actual result: West Brom 1 – 0 Watford · West Brom winJarvis gave this outcome: 52% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours West Brom, negative favours Watford) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (West Brom - Watford)+0.68
Expected total goals2.53
Expected goals West Brom / Watford1.60 / 0.93
Both teams to score (yes / no)49.4% / 50.6%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 73.0%
Over 2.5 goals 46.4%
Over 3.5 goals 24.9%
First half
First-half result (West Brom / draw / Watford)37.6% / 44.2% / 18.1%
A goal in the first half67.1%
Two or more in the first half32.5%
Half-time then full-time
West Brom lead at half-time then West Brom win32.3%
Level at half-time then West Brom win18.3%
Level at half-time then draw17.5%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from West Brom's side
West Brom −2.020.1%
West Brom −1.7524.2%
West Brom −1.528.3%
West Brom −1.2534.2%
West Brom −1.040.2%
West Brom −0.7546.1%
West Brom −0.552.1%
West Brom −0.2558.9%
West Brom draw no bet (0.0)65.7%
West Brom +0.2572.5%
West Brom +0.579.3%
West Brom +0.7582.6%
West Brom +1.086.0%
West Brom +1.592.6%
West Brom +2.095.3%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
West Brom win1.92
Draw3.67
Watford win4.83
Over 2.52.15
Under 2.51.87
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
West Brom wins by more than 1 goals28%
Watford wins by more than 1 goals7%