Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
West Ham
40%
Draw
27%
Fulham
33%
Actual result: West Ham 2 – 3 Fulham · Fulham winJarvis gave this outcome: 33%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours West Ham, negative favours Fulham) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (West Ham - Fulham)+0.15
Expected total goals3.03
Expected goals West Ham / Fulham1.59 / 1.44
Both teams to score (yes / no)62.2% / 37.8%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 82.0%
Over 2.5 goals 58.3%
Over 3.5 goals 35.9%
First half
First-half result (West Ham / draw / Fulham)31.0% / 42.0% / 27.0%
A goal in the first half72.8%
Two or more in the first half41.1%
Half-time then full-time
West Ham lead at half-time then West Ham win24.1%
Fulham lead at half-time then Fulham win19.8%
Level at half-time then draw15.9%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from West Ham's side
West Ham −2.014.5%
West Ham −1.7517.6%
West Ham −1.520.7%
West Ham −1.2525.4%
West Ham −1.030.2%
West Ham −0.7535.0%
West Ham −0.539.7%
West Ham −0.2546.5%
West Ham draw no bet (0.0)53.2%
West Ham +0.2560.0%
West Ham +0.566.8%
West Ham +0.7571.0%
West Ham +1.075.3%
West Ham +1.583.9%
West Ham +2.089.0%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
West Ham win2.52
Draw3.70
Fulham win3.01
Over 2.51.71
Under 2.52.40
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
West Ham wins by more than 1 goals21%
Fulham wins by more than 1 goals16%