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Wolves vs Bolton prediction

Wolves
1 – 3
Full-time
Bolton

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Wolves
70%
Draw
19%
Bolton
11%
Actual result: Wolves 1 – 3 Bolton · Bolton winJarvis gave this outcome: 11%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Wolves, negative favours Bolton) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Wolves - Bolton)+1.46
Expected total goals3.07
Expected goals Wolves / Bolton2.27 / 0.81
Both teams to score (yes / no)50.1% / 49.9%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 81.6%
Over 2.5 goals 59.3%
Over 3.5 goals 37.0%
First half
First-half result (Wolves / draw / Bolton)51.2% / 36.3% / 12.5%
A goal in the first half74.4%
Two or more in the first half40.8%
Half-time then full-time
Wolves lead at half-time then Wolves win47.0%
Level at half-time then Wolves win20.3%
Level at half-time then draw11.3%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Wolves's side
Wolves −2.036.4%
Wolves −1.7541.7%
Wolves −1.546.9%
Wolves −1.2552.7%
Wolves −1.058.4%
Wolves −0.7564.2%
Wolves −0.569.9%
Wolves −0.2574.6%
Wolves draw no bet (0.0)79.3%
Wolves +0.2584.0%
Wolves +0.588.7%
Wolves +0.7590.7%
Wolves +1.092.6%
Wolves +1.596.6%
Wolves +2.097.9%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)
Wolves win1.43
Draw5.34
Bolton win8.83
Over 2.51.69
Under 2.52.46

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin
Wolves wins by more than 1 goals47%
Bolton wins by more than 1 goals3%

Probability trajectory · full match

Match timeline

  1. 26′Yellow cardMateus Mane
  2. 28′GoalAtsuki Ito
  3. 45+1′Yellow cardGaizka Larrazabal
  4. 50′GoalJean-Ricner Bellegarde (assist: Ladislav Krejci)
  5. 63′SubstitutionRafiki Said Ahamada on, Mateus Mane off
  6. 63′SubstitutionJayden Nelson on, Samuel Iling off
  7. 66′SubstitutionRuben Rodrigues on, Atsuki Ito off
  8. 66′SubstitutionSam Dalby on, Thelonius Bair off
  9. 72′GoalSam Dalby (assist: Gaizka Larrazabal)
  10. 76′Yellow cardEthan Erhahon
  11. 78′SubstitutionXavier Simons on, Ethan Erhahon off
  12. 78′SubstitutionMax Conway on, Thierry Gale off
  13. 80′SubstitutionMarshall Munetsi on, Jordan James off
  14. 80′SubstitutionGhislain Konan on, Hugo Bueno off
  15. 82′GoalJosh Sheehan
  16. 85′SubstitutionSean Neave on, Andre off
  17. 89′Yellow cardKieran Trippier
  18. 90+3′Yellow cardSean Neave

Match statistics

WolvesBolton
62Possession38
2.27Expected goals (xG)1.64
19Total shots10
3Shots on target6
9Corners3
11Fouls14
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0
6Offsides1
3Saves2
89Pass accuracy (%)76

Top rated players

8.0J. Sheehan · Bolton1 goal
7.9S. Dalby · Bolton1 goal
7.7A. Ito · Bolton1 goal
7.3L. Brunt · Bolton
7.3J. Bellegarde · Wolves1 goal
7.2L. Krejci · Wolves1 assist

Wolves vs Bolton lineups

WolvesFormation 4-2-3-1
Coach: Cesar Peixoto
Starting XI
1Jose SaGK
2K. TrippierDF
34N. DjigaDF
37L. KrejciDF
3Hugo BuenoDF
7AndreMF
8J. JamesMF
27J. BellegardeMF
28Fer LopezMF
36M. ManeMF
10A. ArmstrongFW
Substitutes
13Joao VirginiaGK
24Toti GomesDF
38J. TchatchouaDF
19R. SaidFW
14S. NeaveFW
5M. MunetsiMF
33G. KonanDF
20T. DoyleMF
23T. ChirewaFW
BoltonFormation 4-4-2
Coach: S. Schumacher
Starting XI
31G. BazunuGK
22Gaizka LarrazabalDF
18E. ToalDF
5L. BruntDF
14A. FamewoDF
16S. Iling-JuniorMF
8J. SheehanMF
21E. ErhahonMF
11T. GaleMF
9T. BairFW
17A. ItoFW
Substitutes
4X. SimonsMF
20Ruben RodriguesFW
26J. NelsonFW
39R. HardieFW
6B. DaviesDF
10S. DalbyFW
25M. ConwayDF
1J. BonhamGK
35Max LottFW

Wolves vs Bolton injuries and suspensions

Wolves
  • R. JimenezOut · Knee Injury
  • Y. MosqueraOut · Ankle Injury
  • B. TraoreOut · Injury
  • R. GomesDoubtful · Foot Injury
Bolton
  • C. Forino-JosephOut · Groin Injury

Wolves and Bolton recent form

WolvesLWLWD
Last 5 matches
10/10/2026@ Middlesbrough0–1
20/09/2026West Brom1–0
16/09/2026@ Everton0–1
13/09/2026@ Sheffield Utd1–0
06/09/2026@ Birmingham2–2
BoltonLWWLL
Last 5 matches
10/10/2026Stoke City1–2
20/09/2026@ Norwich4–3
12/09/2026Cardiff1–0
08/09/2026West Ham2–3
05/09/2026@ Millwall0–4

Wolves vs Bolton head to head

Last 10 meetings: Wolves won 3, drew 4, lost 3. Goals: 20–15.

DateHomeScoreAway
21/04/2018Bolton0–4Wolves
25/11/2017Wolves5–1Bolton
02/02/2016Wolves2–2Bolton
12/09/2015Bolton2–1Wolves
31/01/2015Bolton2–2Wolves
20/09/2014Wolves1–0Bolton
06/04/2013Bolton2–0Wolves
23/10/2012Wolves2–2Bolton
31/03/2012Wolves2–3Bolton
31/12/2011Bolton1–1Wolves

Match information

Referee
Tim Robinson
Venue
Molineux Stadium, Wolverhampton
Round
10