Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Wrexham
42%
Draw
30%
West Brom
28%
Actual result: Wrexham 1 – 2 West Brom · West Brom winJarvis gave this outcome: 28%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Wrexham, negative favours West Brom) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Wrexham - West Brom)+0.29
Expected total goals2.37
Expected goals Wrexham / West Brom1.33 / 1.04
Both teams to score (yes / no)49.1% / 50.9%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 70.0%
Over 2.5 goals 42.3%
Over 3.5 goals 21.5%
First half
First-half result (Wrexham / draw / West Brom)30.8% / 47.0% / 22.2%
A goal in the first half64.5%
Two or more in the first half30.0%
Half-time then full-time
Wrexham lead at half-time then Wrexham win25.0%
Level at half-time then draw19.9%
West Brom lead at half-time then West Brom win15.9%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Wrexham's side
Wrexham −2.013.6%
Wrexham −1.7516.8%
Wrexham −1.520.0%
Wrexham −1.2525.4%
Wrexham −1.030.9%
Wrexham −0.7536.3%
Wrexham −0.541.7%
Wrexham −0.2549.4%
Wrexham draw no bet (0.0)57.0%
Wrexham +0.2564.6%
Wrexham +0.572.2%
Wrexham +0.7576.4%
Wrexham +1.080.6%
Wrexham +1.588.9%
Wrexham +2.092.9%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Wrexham win2.40
Draw3.28
West Brom win3.60
Over 2.52.37
Under 2.51.73
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Wrexham wins by more than 1 goals20%
West Brom wins by more than 1 goals11%
Probability trajectory · full match
Match timeline
- 39′Yellow cardRabby Nzingoula
- 64′GoalKieffer Moore (assist: Oliver Rathbone)
- 69′SubstitutionSam Smith on, Kieffer Moore off
- 69′SubstitutionDanny Imray on, Issa Kabore off
- 72′SubstitutionLewis O'Brien on, Oliver Rathbone off
- 76′SubstitutionJ. Morgan on, Harry Whitwell off
- 76′SubstitutionAune Heggebo on, Barney Stewart off
- 79′GoalIsaac Price
- 80′SubstitutionNathaniel Phillips on, Chris Mepham off
- 83′Yellow cardZak Vyner
- 83′SubstitutionOusmane·Diakite on, Toby Collyer off
- 84′GoalAune Heggebo (assist: Isaac Price)
- 88′SubstitutionRyan·Longman on, Jacques Ekomie off
- 88′SubstitutionB. Cadamarteri on, Zak Vyner off
Match statistics
WrexhamWest Brom
42Possession58
0.46Expected goals (xG)1.01
7Total shots9
4Shots on target3
3Corners7
13Fouls11
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards0
3Offsides2
1Saves2
82Pass accuracy (%)87
Top rated players
| 9.0 | I. Price · West Brom | 1 goal 1 assist |
| 8.0 | K. Moore · Wrexham | 1 goal |
| 7.3 | O. Rathbone · Wrexham | 1 assist |
| 7.2 | B. Whiteman · Wrexham | |
| 7.0 | G. Campbell · West Brom | |
| 7.0 | B. Pereira · West Brom |
Wrexham vs West Brom lineups
WrexhamFormation 5-3-2Coach: P. Parkinson
| 22 | A. Patterson | GK |
| 12 | I. Kabore | DF |
| 26 | Z. Vyner | DF |
| 5 | D. Hyam | DF |
| 2 | C. Doyle | DF |
| 3 | J. Ekomie | DF |
| 15 | G. Dobson | MF |
| 8 | B. Whiteman | MF |
| 20 | O. Rathbone | MF |
| 19 | K. Moore | FW |
| 17 | C. O'Hare | FW |
| 21 | D. Ward | GK |
| 6 | J. Worrall | DF |
| 30 | Daniel Edward Peter Imray | DF |
| 34 | A. James | DF |
| 27 | L. O'Brien | MF |
| 47 | R. Longman | MF |
| 28 | S. Smith | FW |
| 11 | B. Cadamarteri | FW |
| 50 | Samuel Chesworth | FW |
West BromFormation 4-4-2Coach: J. Morrison
| 1 | M. O’Leary | GK |
| 18 | B. Pereira | DF |
| 2 | C. Mepham | DF |
| 6 | G. Campbell | DF |
| 4 | C. Styles | DF |
| 29 | Harry Whitwell | MF |
| 15 | Tobias Christopher Collyer | MF |
| 8 | J. Molumby | MF |
| 21 | I. Price | MF |
| 9 | B. Stewart | FW |
| 20 | R. Nzingoula | FW |
| 3 | N. Phillips | DF |
| 7 | F. Myhre | MF |
| 17 | O. Diakite | MF |
| 11 | J. Morgan | FW |
| 23 | T. Bany | FW |
| 19 | A. Heggebo | FW |
| 22 | C. Townsend | DF |
| 13 | M. Ingram | GK |
| 35 | M. Crowther | MF |
Wrexham vs West Brom injuries and suspensions
Wrexham- N. BroadheadOut · Thigh Injury
- L. CacaceOut · Calf Injury
- M. CleworthOut · Muscle Injury
- B. SheafOut · Injury
- G. ThomasonOut · Thigh Injury
- C. DoyleDoubtful · Knock
- M. JamesDoubtful · Back Injury
- S. RevanDoubtful · Hamstring Injury
West Brom- N. GalvesOut · Knee Injury
- M. JohnstonOut · Broken Leg
Wrexham and West Brom recent form
WrexhamDWLDD| 10/10/2026 | @ Derby | 1–1 |
| 19/09/2026 | Southampton | 2–1 |
| 11/09/2026 | @ West Ham | 0–6 |
| 08/09/2026 | Burnley | 1–1 |
| 05/09/2026 | @ Swansea | 0–0 |
West BromLLDWW| 10/10/2026 | Birmingham | 0–1 |
| 20/09/2026 | @ Wolves | 0–1 |
| 12/09/2026 | QPR | 1–1 |
| 09/09/2026 | @ Derby | 1–0 |
| 05/09/2026 | Watford | 1–0 |
Wrexham vs West Brom head to head
Last 2 meetings: Wrexham won 0, drew 1, lost 1. Goals: 4–5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/04/2026 | West Brom | 2–2 | Wrexham |
| 16/08/2025 | Wrexham | 2–3 | West Brom |
Match information
- Referee
- Thomas Kirk
- Venue
- Racecourse Ground, Wrexham
- Round
- 10