Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Actual result: America MG 1 – 1 Londrina · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 31%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours America MG, negative favours Londrina) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (America MG - Londrina)+0.38
Expected total goals2.32
Expected goals America MG / Londrina1.35 / 0.97
Both teams to score (yes / no)47.5% / 52.5%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 68.9%
Over 2.5 goals 40.9%
Over 3.5 goals 20.4%
First half
First-half result (America MG / draw / Londrina)32.0% / 47.6% / 20.5%
A goal in the first half63.6%
Two or more in the first half29.2%
Half-time then full-time
America MG lead at half-time then America MG win26.5%
Level at half-time then draw20.4%
Level at half-time then America MG win16.7%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from America MG's side
America MG −2.014.7%
America MG −1.7518.1%
America MG −1.521.5%
America MG −1.2527.1%
America MG −1.032.7%
America MG −0.7538.4%
America MG −0.544.0%
America MG −0.2551.7%
America MG draw no bet (0.0)59.4%
America MG +0.2567.1%
America MG +0.574.8%
America MG +0.7578.7%
America MG +1.082.6%
America MG +1.590.4%
America MG +2.093.9%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
America MG win2.27
Draw3.24
Londrina win3.97
Over 2.52.45
Under 2.51.69
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
America MG wins by more than 1 goals22%
Londrina wins by more than 1 goals10%
