English Premier League

Leeds vs Man Utd prediction

20:00, 18/10
GMT+7
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Leeds meet Man Utd in the Premier League, kick-off 20:00 on 18/10 (GMT+7). In the table, Leeds are 7th (9 points from 6 games) and Man Utd are 13th (6 points from 6 games). Jarvis gives Leeds a 40% chance to win, 28% for a draw and 32% for Man Utd; the score Jarvis predicts is 2-1. Jarvis expects 2.8 goals in the match: both teams score with 57%, 3 or more goals with 52%.

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Outcome probability

Jarvis's pre-match prediction · updates live once the ball is rolling
Offline
Leeds
40%
Draw
28%
Man Utd
32%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Leeds, negative favours Man Utd) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Leeds - Man Utd)+0.18
Expected total goals2.76
Expected goals Leeds / Man Utd1.47 / 1.29
Both teams to score (yes / no)57.3% / 42.7%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 77.6%
Over 2.5 goals 52.2%
Over 3.5 goals 30.0%
First half
First-half result (Leeds / draw / Man Utd)30.7% / 43.6% / 25.7%
A goal in the first half69.9%
Two or more in the first half36.6%
Half-time then full-time
Leeds lead at half-time then Leeds win24.1%
Man Utd lead at half-time then Man Utd win18.8%
Level at half-time then draw17.1%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Leeds's side
Leeds −2.013.8%
Leeds −1.7516.9%
Leeds −1.520.0%
Leeds −1.2525.0%
Leeds −1.030.0%
Leeds −0.7535.0%
Leeds −0.540.0%
Leeds −0.2547.0%
Leeds draw no bet (0.0)54.0%
Leeds +0.2561.0%
Leeds +0.568.1%
Leeds +0.7572.4%
Leeds +1.076.8%
Leeds +1.585.5%
Leeds +2.090.3%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)
Leeds win2.50
Draw3.56
Man Utd win3.13
Over 2.51.92
Under 2.52.09

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin
Leeds wins by more than 1 goals20%
Man Utd wins by more than 1 goals14%

Probability trajectory

Leeds vs Man Utd injury report and team news

Leeds
  • D. JamesOut · Back Injury
  • M. JosephOut · Knee Injury
  • J. RodonOut · Muscle Injury
Man Utd
  • P. DorguOut · Hamstring Injury
  • T. HeatonOut · Abdominal strain
  • K. MainooOut · Injury
  • N. MazraouiOut · Injury
  • B. SeskoOut · Leg Injury
  • L. ShawOut · Injury
  • M. UgarteOut · Knee Injury

Leeds vs Man Utd team form

LeedsLDWLD
Last 5 matches
10/10/2026Arsenal (away)1–2
20/09/2026Crystal Palace (home)0–0
14/09/2026Newcastle (home)4–1
09/09/2026Chelsea (away)3–6
05/09/2026Brighton (away)1–1
Man UtdLDDLL
Last 5 matches
13/10/2026Atletico Madrid (away)0–2
10/10/2026Tottenham (home)1–1
20/09/2026Fulham (away)1–1
16/09/2026Brighton (home)2–3
13/09/2026Manchester City (home)0–1

Leeds vs Man Utd head to head (H2H)

Head to head record, last 10 meetings: Leeds won 1, drew 5, lost 4. Leeds scored 9 and conceded 18 goals.

DateHomeScoreAway
12/08/2026Manchester United1–1Leeds
13/04/2026Manchester United1–2Leeds
04/01/2026Leeds1–1Manchester United
19/07/2025Manchester United0–0Leeds
12/07/2023Manchester United2–0Leeds
12/02/2023Leeds0–2Manchester United
08/02/2023Manchester United2–2Leeds
20/02/2022Leeds2–4Manchester United
14/08/2021Manchester United5–1Leeds
25/04/2021Leeds0–0Manchester United

Match information

Venue
Elland Road, Leeds
Round
7

Next fixtures of both teams

  • vs Sunderland (away)Sun 25/10, 23:30 GMT+7 · Premier League 26-27
  • vs AFC Bournemouth (away)Sat 31/10, 22:00 GMT+7 · Premier League 26-27
  • vs Como (away)Wed 21/10, 23:45 GMT+7 · Champions League 26-27
  • vs AFC BournemouthSun 25/10, 21:00 GMT+7 · Premier League 26-27

Other matches on 18/10 (GMT+7)

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.

Premier League table, latest

See the full Premier League table