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German Bundesliga

Leverkusen vs Freiburg prediction

Leverkusen
20:30, 18/10
GMT+7
Kicking off soon
Freiburg

Quick preview

Leverkusen meet Freiburg in the Bundesliga, kick-off 20:30 on 18/10 (GMT+7). Jarvis gives Leverkusen a 60% chance to win, 21% for a draw and 19% for Freiburg; the score Jarvis predicts is 2-1. Jarvis expects 3.3 goals in the match: both teams score with 61%, 3 or more goals with 65%.

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Outcome probability

Jarvis's pre-match prediction · updates live once the ball is rolling
Offline
Leverkusen
60%
Draw
21%
Freiburg
19%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Leverkusen, negative favours Freiburg) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Leverkusen - Freiburg)+1.00
Expected total goals3.33
Expected goals Leverkusen / Freiburg2.16 / 1.16
Both teams to score (yes / no)61.5% / 38.5%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 85.1%
Over 2.5 goals 64.6%
Over 3.5 goals 42.6%
First half
First-half result (Leverkusen / draw / Freiburg)44.6% / 36.9% / 18.5%
A goal in the first half76.9%
Two or more in the first half44.9%
Half-time then full-time
Leverkusen lead at half-time then Leverkusen win38.8%
Level at half-time then Leverkusen win17.9%
Level at half-time then draw12.0%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Leverkusen's side
Leverkusen −2.028.5%
Leverkusen −1.7533.0%
Leverkusen −1.537.5%
Leverkusen −1.2543.0%
Leverkusen −1.048.5%
Leverkusen −0.7554.0%
Leverkusen −0.559.5%
Leverkusen −0.2564.9%
Leverkusen draw no bet (0.0)70.2%
Leverkusen +0.2575.6%
Leverkusen +0.580.9%
Leverkusen +0.7583.8%
Leverkusen +1.086.7%
Leverkusen +1.592.5%
Leverkusen +2.095.1%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)
Leverkusen win1.68
Draw4.67
Freiburg win5.25
Over 2.51.55
Under 2.52.83

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin
Leverkusen wins by more than 1 goals37%
Freiburg wins by more than 1 goals8%
Corners
Expected total corners9.6
6.5+ corners in the match49%
Cards
Expected total cards2.7
2.5+ cards in the match50%

Probability trajectory

Leverkusen vs Freiburg injury report and team news

Leverkusen
  • E. Ben SeghirOut · Muscle Injury
  • G. DoueOut · Calf Injury
  • K. EichhornOut · Illness
  • C. KofaneOut · Muscle Injury
  • M. TerrierOut · Muscle Injury
  • M. CulbreathDoubtful · Foot Injury
Freiburg
  • Y. SuzukiOut · Red Card
  • B. YilmazDoubtful · Lacking Match Fitness

Leverkusen vs Freiburg team form

LeverkusenWWWWD
Last 5 matches
15/10/2026Lech Poznan (away)4–0
10/10/2026FSV Mainz 05 (away)4–3
20/09/2026RB Leipzig (home)2–0
16/09/2026Celje (home)2–0
12/09/2026FC Augsburg (away)2–2
FreiburgWWWDW
Last 5 matches
15/10/2026FK Jablonec (home)3–2
11/10/2026FC Schalke 04 (home)2–1
03/10/2026FC Luzern (home)4–2
19/09/2026Eintracht Frankfurt (away)2–2
12/09/2026Borussia Monchengladbach (home)5–0

Leverkusen vs Freiburg head to head (H2H)

Head to head record, last 10 meetings: Leverkusen won 5, drew 3, lost 2. Leverkusen scored 23 and conceded 16 goals.

DateHomeScoreAway
07/03/2026SC Freiburg3–3Bayer Leverkusen
26/10/2025Bayer Leverkusen2–0SC Freiburg
04/05/2025SC Freiburg2–2Bayer Leverkusen
21/12/2024Bayer Leverkusen5–1SC Freiburg
17/03/2024SC Freiburg2–3Bayer Leverkusen
29/10/2023Bayer Leverkusen2–1SC Freiburg
26/02/2023SC Freiburg1–1Bayer Leverkusen
03/09/2022Bayer Leverkusen2–3SC Freiburg
14/05/2022Bayer Leverkusen2–1SC Freiburg
19/12/2021SC Freiburg2–1Bayer Leverkusen

Match information

Referee
Florian Badstubner
Venue
BayArena, Bayer Leverkusen
Round
6

Other matches on 18/10 (GMT+7)

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.