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Az Alkmaar vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva prediction

Az Alkmaar
23:45, 15/10
GMT+7
Kicking off soon
Hapoel Be'er Sheva

Outcome probability

Jarvis's pre-match prediction · updates live once the ball is rolling
Offline
Az Alkmaar
75%
Draw
16%
Hapoel Be'er Sheva
9%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Az Alkmaar, negative favours Hapoel Be'er Sheva) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Az Alkmaar - Hapoel Be'er Sheva)+1.72
Expected total goals3.29
Expected goals Az Alkmaar / Hapoel Be'er Sheva2.50 / 0.79
Both teams to score (yes / no)50.1% / 49.9%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 84.1%
Over 2.5 goals 63.8%
Over 3.5 goals 41.7%
First half
First-half result (Az Alkmaar / draw / Hapoel Be'er Sheva)55.4% / 33.2% / 11.4%
A goal in the first half77.0%
Two or more in the first half43.7%
Half-time then full-time
Az Alkmaar lead at half-time then Az Alkmaar win51.6%
Level at half-time then Az Alkmaar win20.1%
Level at half-time then draw9.3%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Az Alkmaar's side
Az Alkmaar −2.042.0%
Az Alkmaar −1.7547.4%
Az Alkmaar −1.552.7%
Az Alkmaar −1.2558.2%
Az Alkmaar −1.063.7%
Az Alkmaar −0.7569.2%
Az Alkmaar −0.574.7%
Az Alkmaar −0.2578.6%
Az Alkmaar draw no bet (0.0)82.6%
Az Alkmaar +0.2586.6%
Az Alkmaar +0.590.5%
Az Alkmaar +0.7592.2%
Az Alkmaar +1.093.9%
Az Alkmaar +1.597.3%
Az Alkmaar +2.098.4%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)
Az Alkmaar win1.34
Draw6.30
Hapoel Be'er Sheva win10.56
Over 2.51.57
Under 2.52.76

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin
Az Alkmaar wins by more than 1 goals53%
Hapoel Be'er Sheva wins by more than 1 goals3%

Probability trajectory

Az Alkmaar vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva injury report and team news

Az Alkmaar
  • J. HornkampOut · Injury
  • S. ResinkOut · Knee Injury
  • K. SmitOut · Injury
Hapoel Be'er Sheva
  • D. BitonOut · Heart Problems

Az Alkmaar vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva team form

Az AlkmaarLWLDW
Last 5 matches
10/10/2026Feyenoord (away)0–2
20/09/2026Telstar (home)1–0
16/09/2026Sunderland (away)0–1
11/09/2026Willem II (home)1–1
06/09/2026Heerenveen (away)3–2
Hapoel Be'er ShevaWWDWL
Last 5 matches
10/10/2026Ironi Tiberias (away)2–0
19/09/2026Ironi Kiryat Shmona (home)1–0
16/09/2026Dinamo Zagreb (home)0–0
13/09/2026Hapoel Petah Tikva (away)2–0
07/09/2026Maccabi Tel Aviv (home)1–4

Match information

Referee
Radoslav Gidzhenov
Venue
AFAS Stadion(Alkmaar), Alkmaar
Round
2