UEFA Europa League
Lech Poznan vs Leverkusen prediction
23:45, 15/10
GMT+7
Kicking off soonOutcome probability
Jarvis's pre-match prediction · updates live once the ball is rolling
Offline
Lech Poznan
18%
Draw
22%
Leverkusen
61%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Lech Poznan, negative favours Leverkusen) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Lech Poznan - Leverkusen)-1.06
Expected total goals3.31
Expected goals Lech Poznan / Leverkusen1.12 / 2.19
Both teams to score (yes / no)60.8% / 39.2%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 85.1%
Over 2.5 goals 64.3%
Over 3.5 goals 42.2%
First half
First-half result (Lech Poznan / draw / Leverkusen)17.4% / 37.5% / 45.2%
A goal in the first half76.3%
Two or more in the first half45.0%
Half-time then full-time
Leverkusen lead at half-time then Leverkusen win39.7%
Level at half-time then Leverkusen win18.4%
Level at half-time then draw12.4%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Lech Poznan's side
Lech Poznan −2.04.5%
Lech Poznan −1.755.7%
Lech Poznan −1.56.9%
Lech Poznan −1.259.6%
Lech Poznan −1.012.3%
Lech Poznan −0.7515.0%
Lech Poznan −0.517.7%
Lech Poznan −0.2523.1%
Lech Poznan draw no bet (0.0)28.5%
Lech Poznan +0.2533.9%
Lech Poznan +0.539.3%
Lech Poznan +0.7544.8%
Lech Poznan +1.050.3%
Lech Poznan +1.561.2%
Lech Poznan +2.070.4%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Lech Poznan win5.66
Draw4.62
Leverkusen win1.65
Over 2.51.56
Under 2.52.80
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Lech Poznan wins by more than 1 goals7%
Leverkusen wins by more than 1 goals39%
Probability trajectory
Lech Poznan vs Leverkusen injury report and team news
Lech Poznan- A. DouglasOut · Ankle Injury
- A. GholizadehOut · Knee Injury
- R. MurawskiOut · Red Card
- A. SayyadmaneshOut · Groin Injury
Leverkusen- M. CulbreathOut · Foot Injury
- G. DoueOut · Calf Injury
- K. EichhornOut · Illness
- C. KofaneOut · Muscle Injury
- E. Ben SeghirDoubtful · Muscle Injury
Lech Poznan vs Leverkusen team form
Lech PoznanWDWLL| 10/10/2026 | Slask Wroclaw (away) | 4–1 |
| 03/10/2026 | Energie Cottbus (home) | 2–2 |
| 20/09/2026 | Radomiak Radom (home) | 5–1 |
| 17/09/2026 | Crystal Palace (away) | 0–4 |
| 12/09/2026 | Gornik Zabrze (away) | 1–2 |
LeverkusenWWWDW| 10/10/2026 | FSV Mainz 05 (away) | 4–3 |
| 20/09/2026 | RB Leipzig (home) | 2–0 |
| 16/09/2026 | Celje (home) | 2–0 |
| 12/09/2026 | FC Augsburg (away) | 2–2 |
| 05/09/2026 | Union Berlin (home) | 4–0 |
Match information
- Referee
- Milos Milanovic
- Venue
- Stadion Miejski, Poznan
- Round
- 2