UEFA Europa League

Union St Gilloise vs Real Sociedad prediction

Union St Gilloise

23:45, 15/10

GMT+7

Kicking off soon

Real Sociedad

Outcome probability

Jarvis's pre-match prediction · updates live once the ball is rolling

Offline

Union St Gilloise

39%

Draw

27%

Real Sociedad

34%

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Union St Gilloise, negative favours Real Sociedad) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Union St Gilloise - Real Sociedad)+0.10

Expected total goals2.81

Expected goals Union St Gilloise / Real Sociedad1.46 / 1.35

Both teams to score (yes / no)57.7% / 42.3%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 77.9%

Over 2.5 goals 53.3%

Over 3.5 goals 31.1%

First half

First-half result (Union St Gilloise / draw / Real Sociedad)30.4% / 42.1% / 27.5%

A goal in the first half71.1%

Two or more in the first half36.8%

Half-time then full-time

Union St Gilloise lead at half-time then Union St Gilloise win23.3%

Real Sociedad lead at half-time then Real Sociedad win20.2%

Level at half-time then draw15.9%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Union St Gilloise's side

Union St Gilloise −2.013.1%

Union St Gilloise −1.7516.0%

Union St Gilloise −1.519.0%

Union St Gilloise −1.2524.0%

Union St Gilloise −1.029.0%

Union St Gilloise −0.7534.0%

Union St Gilloise −0.539.0%

Union St Gilloise −0.2545.6%

Union St Gilloise draw no bet (0.0)52.3%

Union St Gilloise +0.2559.0%

Union St Gilloise +0.565.7%

Union St Gilloise +0.7570.3%

Union St Gilloise +1.074.9%

Union St Gilloise +1.584.2%

Union St Gilloise +2.089.3%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Union St Gilloise win2.57

Draw3.74

Real Sociedad win2.91

Over 2.51.87

Under 2.52.14

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Union St Gilloise wins by more than 1 goals19%

Real Sociedad wins by more than 1 goals16%

Outcome probability

Probability trajectory