UEFA Europa League

Sparta Prague vs Lillestrom prediction

Sparta Prague

23:45, 15/10

GMT+7

Kicking off soon

Lillestrom

Outcome probability

Jarvis's pre-match prediction · updates live once the ball is rolling

Offline

Sparta Prague

72%

Draw

18%

Lillestrom

10%

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Sparta Prague, negative favours Lillestrom) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Sparta Prague - Lillestrom)+1.56

Expected total goals3.06

Expected goals Sparta Prague / Lillestrom2.31 / 0.75

Both teams to score (yes / no)47.8% / 52.2%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 81.3%

Over 2.5 goals 59.1%

Over 3.5 goals 36.7%

First half

First-half result (Sparta Prague / draw / Lillestrom)53.0% / 35.4% / 11.6%

A goal in the first half74.5%

Two or more in the first half40.3%

Half-time then full-time

Sparta Prague lead at half-time then Sparta Prague win49.0%

Level at half-time then Sparta Prague win20.6%

Level at half-time then draw10.7%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Sparta Prague's side

Sparta Prague −2.038.4%

Sparta Prague −1.7543.8%

Sparta Prague −1.549.2%

Sparta Prague −1.2555.0%

Sparta Prague −1.060.7%

Sparta Prague −0.7566.5%

Sparta Prague −0.572.3%

Sparta Prague −0.2576.7%

Sparta Prague draw no bet (0.0)81.1%

Sparta Prague +0.2585.4%

Sparta Prague +0.589.8%

Sparta Prague +0.7591.7%

Sparta Prague +1.093.5%

Sparta Prague +1.597.1%

Sparta Prague +2.098.3%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Sparta Prague win1.38

Draw5.69

Lillestrom win9.84

Over 2.51.69

Under 2.52.44

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Sparta Prague wins by more than 1 goals49%

Lillestrom wins by more than 1 goals3%

Probability trajectory

Sparta Prague vs Lillestrom injuries and suspensions

Sparta Prague

M. AndersenOut · Knee Injury
E. CobbautOut · Groin Injury
A. KarabecOut · Ankle Injury
O. PenxaOut · Knee Injury
M. RynesOut · Ankle Injury
E. UchennaOut · Groin Injury
J. AlcocerDoubtful · Health problems
L. Mbe SohDoubtful · Health problems

Lillestrom

E. B. GarnasOut · Knee Injury
C. JebaraOut · Injury

Sparta Prague and Lillestrom recent form

Sparta PragueWWWWW

Last 5 matches
11/10/2026	Pardubice	2–0	Czech Liga
02/10/2026	Vysocina Jihlava	5–3	Friendly
20/09/2026	@ Sigma Olomouc	3–0	Czech Liga
16/09/2026	@ Ararat-Armenia	4–1	UEFA Europa League
12/09/2026	FK Jablonec	2–0	Czech Liga

LillestromDWLLW

Last 5 matches
11/10/2026	Molde	2–2	Eliteserien
01/10/2026	@ Baerum	5–1	NM Cupen
20/09/2026	@ Viking	0–3	Eliteserien
17/09/2026	Torreense	1–2	UEFA Europa League
12/09/2026	Valerenga	2–0	Eliteserien

Match information

Venue: Stadion Letna, Prague
Round: 2