Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Birmingham
44%
Barcelona
44%
Actual result: Birmingham 2 – 2 Barcelona · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 12%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Birmingham, negative favours Barcelona) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Birmingham - Barcelona)+0.00
Expected total goals12.00
Expected goals Birmingham / Barcelona6.00 / 6.00
Both teams to score (yes / no)99.5% / 0.5%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 100.0%
Over 2.5 goals 99.9%
Over 3.5 goals 99.8%
First half
First-half result (Birmingham / draw / Barcelona)40.5% / 18.9% / 40.5%
A goal in the first half98.9%
Two or more in the first half97.8%
Half-time then full-time
Birmingham lead at half-time then Birmingham win29.4%
Barcelona lead at half-time then Barcelona win29.4%
Level at half-time then Birmingham win7.9%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Birmingham's side
Birmingham −2.028.1%
Birmingham −1.7530.6%
Birmingham −1.533.0%
Birmingham −1.2535.8%
Birmingham −1.038.6%
Birmingham −0.7541.4%
Birmingham −0.544.2%
Birmingham −0.2547.1%
Birmingham draw no bet (0.0)50.0%
Birmingham +0.2552.9%
Birmingham +0.555.8%
Birmingham +0.7558.6%
Birmingham +1.061.4%
Birmingham +1.567.0%
Birmingham +2.071.9%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Birmingham win2.26
Draw8.57
Barcelona win2.26
Over 2.51.00
Under 2.51912.81
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Birmingham wins by more than 1 goals28%
Barcelona wins by more than 1 goals28%
