Spanish La Liga

Celta Vigo vs Alaves prediction

21:15, 18/10
GMT+7
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Celta Vigo meet Alaves in the La Liga, kick-off 21:15 on 18/10 (GMT+7). In the table, Celta Vigo are 9th (8 points from 8 games) and Alaves are 7th (11 points from 8 games). Jarvis gives Celta Vigo a 44% chance to win, 31% for a draw and 25% for Alaves; the score Jarvis predicts is 1-0. Jarvis expects 2.1 goals in the match: both teams score with 41%, 3 or more goals with 34%.

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Outcome probability

Jarvis's pre-match prediction · updates live once the ball is rolling
Offline
Celta Vigo
44%
Draw
31%
Alaves
25%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Celta Vigo, negative favours Alaves) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Celta Vigo - Alaves)+0.37
Expected total goals2.07
Expected goals Celta Vigo / Alaves1.22 / 0.85
Both teams to score (yes / no)41.4% / 58.6%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 62.3%
Over 2.5 goals 34.3%
Over 3.5 goals 15.6%
First half
First-half result (Celta Vigo / draw / Alaves)31.1% / 49.3% / 19.6%
A goal in the first half60.1%
Two or more in the first half24.6%
Half-time then full-time
Celta Vigo lead at half-time then Celta Vigo win25.9%
Level at half-time then draw21.8%
Level at half-time then Celta Vigo win17.0%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Celta Vigo's side
Celta Vigo −2.013.4%
Celta Vigo −1.7516.7%
Celta Vigo −1.519.9%
Celta Vigo −1.2525.9%
Celta Vigo −1.031.9%
Celta Vigo −0.7537.9%
Celta Vigo −0.543.9%
Celta Vigo −0.2551.7%
Celta Vigo draw no bet (0.0)59.6%
Celta Vigo +0.2567.4%
Celta Vigo +0.575.3%
Celta Vigo +0.7579.3%
Celta Vigo +1.083.4%
Celta Vigo +1.591.6%
Celta Vigo +2.094.8%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)
Celta Vigo win2.28
Draw3.19
Alaves win4.04
Over 2.52.91
Under 2.51.52

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin
Celta Vigo wins by more than 1 goals20%
Alaves wins by more than 1 goals8%

Probability trajectory

Celta Vigo vs Alaves injury report and team news

Celta Vigo
  • P. DuranOut · Calf Injury
  • J. El AbdellaouiOut · Knee Injury
  • B. IglesiasOut · Muscle Injury
  • M. RomanOut · Knee Injury
  • C. StarfeltOut · Muscle Injury
Alaves
  • F. GarcesOut · Suspended
  • A. PerezOut · Red Card
  • M. RodriguezOut · Ankle Injury

Celta Vigo vs Alaves team form

Celta VigoLDWLD
Last 5 matches
15/10/2026Juventus (home)1–2
11/10/2026Elche (away)0–0
19/09/2026Racing Santander (home)5–0
16/09/2026Omonia Nicosia (away)0–1
13/09/2026Malaga (home)1–1
AlavesLDLLW
Last 5 matches
10/10/2026Atletico Madrid (home)1–2
19/09/2026Athletic Club (away)0–0
15/09/2026Valencia (home)0–1
12/09/2026Racing Santander (away)1–2
06/09/2026Osasuna (home)5–2

Celta Vigo vs Alaves head to head (H2H)

Head to head record, last 10 meetings: Celta Vigo won 6, drew 2, lost 2. Celta Vigo scored 19 and conceded 12 goals.

DateHomeScoreAway
22/03/2026Celta Vigo3–4Alaves
22/11/2025Alaves0–1Celta Vigo
27/01/2025Alaves1–1Celta Vigo
16/08/2024Celta Vigo2–1Alaves
27/04/2024Alaves3–0Celta Vigo
28/09/2023Celta Vigo1–1Alaves
07/05/2022Celta Vigo4–0Alaves
27/11/2021Alaves1–2Celta Vigo
04/04/2021Alaves1–3Celta Vigo
20/12/2020Celta Vigo2–0Alaves

Match information

Venue
Municipal de Balaidos, Vigo
Round
9

Next fixtures of both teams

  • vs Celtic (away)Fri 23/10, 02:00 GMT+7 · Europa League 26-27
  • vs Real BetisSun 25/10, 22:15 GMT+7 · La Liga 26-27
  • vs MalagaSat 24/10, 02:00 GMT+7 · La Liga 26-27
  • vs Barcelona (away)Sun 01/11, 03:00 GMT+7 · La Liga 26-27

Other matches on 18/10 (GMT+7)

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.

La Liga table, latest

#TeamPGDPts
1Barcelona8+2724
2Atletico Madrid8+1019
3Real Betis8+519
...
6Real Sociedad8-313
7Alaves8+411
8Deportivo9+111
9Celta Vigo8+28
10Athletic Club6+18

See the full La Liga table