Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Bodo Glimt
86%
Fredrikstad
5%
Actual result: Bodo Glimt 1 – 0 Fredrikstad · Bodo Glimt winJarvis gave this outcome: 86% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Bodo Glimt, negative favours Fredrikstad) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Bodo Glimt - Fredrikstad)+2.62
Expected total goals4.06
Expected goals Bodo Glimt / Fredrikstad3.34 / 0.72
Both teams to score (yes / no)49.7% / 50.3%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 91.4%
Over 2.5 goals 77.1%
Over 3.5 goals 57.9%
First half
First-half result (Bodo Glimt / draw / Fredrikstad)67.2% / 25.3% / 7.6%
A goal in the first half83.8%
Two or more in the first half54.7%
Half-time then full-time
Bodo Glimt lead at half-time then Bodo Glimt win64.7%
Level at half-time then Bodo Glimt win18.3%
Level at half-time then draw5.2%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Bodo Glimt's side
Bodo Glimt −2.060.0%
Bodo Glimt −1.7565.1%
Bodo Glimt −1.570.1%
Bodo Glimt −1.2574.1%
Bodo Glimt −1.078.1%
Bodo Glimt −0.7582.1%
Bodo Glimt −0.586.1%
Bodo Glimt −0.2588.4%
Bodo Glimt draw no bet (0.0)90.8%
Bodo Glimt +0.2593.1%
Bodo Glimt +0.595.4%
Bodo Glimt +0.7596.3%
Bodo Glimt +1.097.1%
Bodo Glimt +1.598.8%
Bodo Glimt +2.099.3%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Bodo Glimt win1.16
Draw10.71
Fredrikstad win21.89
Over 2.51.30
Under 2.54.37
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Bodo Glimt wins by more than 1 goals70%
Fredrikstad wins by more than 1 goals1%
