FIFA World Cup
Brazil vs Japan prediction
Brazil
2 – 1
Full-time
Japan
Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Brazil
57%
Draw
25%
Japan
19%
Actual result: Brazil 2 – 1 Japan · Brazil winJarvis gave this outcome: 57% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Brazil, negative favours Japan) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Brazil - Japan)+0.83
Expected total goals2.50
Expected goals Brazil / Japan1.66 / 0.84
Both teams to score (yes / no)46.0% / 54.0%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 71.4%
Over 2.5 goals 45.6%
Over 3.5 goals 24.2%
First half
First-half result (Brazil / draw / Japan)40.8% / 42.5% / 16.8%
A goal in the first half67.4%
Two or more in the first half31.1%
Half-time then full-time
Brazil ahead then Brazil win35.5%
level then Brazil win19.1%
level then draw15.8%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Quoted from Brazil
Brazil give 2 trái (−2.0)22.6%
Brazil give 1 trái 3/4 (−1.75)27.0%
Brazil give 1 trái rưỡi (−1.5)31.4%
Brazil give 1 trái 1/4 (−1.25)37.8%
Brazil give 1 trái (−1.0)44.1%
Brazil give 3/4 trái (−0.75)50.5%
Brazil give nửa trái (−0.5)56.9%
Brazil give 1/4 trái (−0.25)63.0%
Level ball (0.0)69.2%
Brazil receive 1/4 trái (+0.25)75.3%
Brazil receive nửa trái (+0.5)81.4%
Brazil receive 3/4 trái (+0.75)84.6%
Brazil receive 1 trái (+1.0)87.8%
Brazil receive 1 trái rưỡi (+1.5)94.2%
Brazil receive 2 trái (+2.0)96.4%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Brazil win1.76
Draw4.08
Japan win5.38
Over 2.52.19
Under 2.51.84
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Most likely scorelines
1–0
13.5%
1–1
11.5%
2–0
11.4%
2–1
9.5%
0–0
8.3%
0–1
6.7%
Goal margin
Brazil wins by more than 1 goals31%
Japan wins by more than 1 goals6%