FIFA World Cup
Germany vs Paraguay prediction
Germany
1 – 1
Full-time
Paraguay
Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Germany
73%
Draw
18%
Paraguay
9%
Actual result: Germany 1 – 1 Paraguay · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 18%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Germany, negative favours Paraguay) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Germany - Paraguay)+1.47
Expected total goals2.50
Expected goals Germany / Paraguay1.98 / 0.52
Both teams to score (yes / no)34.4% / 65.6%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 71.0%
Over 2.5 goals 45.6%
Over 3.5 goals 24.2%
First half
First-half result (Germany / draw / Paraguay)51.4% / 39.0% / 9.6%
A goal in the first half67.8%
Two or more in the first half30.8%
Half-time then full-time
Germany ahead then Germany win48.0%
level then Germany win22.3%
level then draw12.9%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Quoted from Germany
Germany give 2 trái (−2.0)35.0%
Germany give 1 trái 3/4 (−1.75)40.6%
Germany give 1 trái rưỡi (−1.5)46.3%
Germany give 1 trái 1/4 (−1.25)52.9%
Germany give 1 trái (−1.0)59.5%
Germany give 3/4 trái (−0.75)66.1%
Germany give nửa trái (−0.5)72.7%
Germany give 1/4 trái (−0.25)77.3%
Level ball (0.0)81.9%
Germany receive 1/4 trái (+0.25)86.5%
Germany receive nửa trái (+0.5)91.1%
Germany receive 3/4 trái (+0.75)92.9%
Germany receive 1 trái (+1.0)94.7%
Germany receive 1 trái rưỡi (+1.5)98.2%
Germany receive 2 trái (+2.0)99.0%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Germany win1.37
Draw5.44
Paraguay win11.25
Over 2.52.19
Under 2.51.84
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Most likely scorelines
1–0
16.6%
2–0
16.2%
3–0
10.7%
2–1
8.3%
1–1
8.1%
0–0
7.9%
Goal margin
Germany wins by more than 1 goals46%
Paraguay wins by more than 1 goals2%