Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
SanSan Martin de Burzaco
16%
Actual result: Camioneros 2 – 0 San Martin de Burzaco · Camioneros winJarvis gave this outcome: 63% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Camioneros, negative favours San Martin de Burzaco) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Camioneros - San Martin de Burzaco)+1.16
Expected total goals3.18
Expected goals Camioneros / San Martin de Burzaco2.17 / 1.01
Both teams to score (yes / no)56.8% / 43.2%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 83.1%
Over 2.5 goals 61.5%
Over 3.5 goals 39.2%
First half
First-half result (Camioneros / draw / San Martin de Burzaco)46.8% / 37.0% / 16.2%
A goal in the first half75.4%
Two or more in the first half42.4%
Half-time then full-time
Camioneros lead at half-time then Camioneros win41.5%
Level at half-time then Camioneros win18.9%
Level at half-time then draw12.0%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Camioneros's side
Camioneros −2.030.8%
Camioneros −1.7535.6%
Camioneros −1.540.4%
Camioneros −1.2546.1%
Camioneros −1.051.8%
Camioneros −0.7557.5%
Camioneros −0.563.2%
Camioneros −0.2568.4%
Camioneros draw no bet (0.0)73.6%
Camioneros +0.2578.8%
Camioneros +0.583.9%
Camioneros +0.7586.5%
Camioneros +1.089.1%
Camioneros +1.594.3%
Camioneros +2.096.4%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Camioneros win1.58
Draw4.82
San Martin de Burzaco win6.23
Over 2.51.63
Under 2.52.60
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Camioneros wins by more than 1 goals40%
San Martin de Burzaco wins by more than 1 goals6%
