Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Chicago Fire
62%
Santos Laguna
17%
Actual result: Chicago Fire 3 – 1 Santos Laguna · Chicago Fire winJarvis gave this outcome: 62% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Chicago Fire, negative favours Santos Laguna) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Chicago Fire - Santos Laguna)+1.10
Expected total goals3.35
Expected goals Chicago Fire / Santos Laguna2.23 / 1.12
Both teams to score (yes / no)60.8% / 39.2%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 85.3%
Over 2.5 goals 65.0%
Over 3.5 goals 43.0%
First half
First-half result (Chicago Fire / draw / Santos Laguna)46.1% / 36.5% / 17.4%
A goal in the first half77.0%
Two or more in the first half45.2%
Half-time then full-time
Chicago Fire lead at half-time then Chicago Fire win40.5%
Level at half-time then Chicago Fire win18.3%
Level at half-time then draw11.7%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Chicago Fire's side
Chicago Fire −2.030.4%
Chicago Fire −1.7535.0%
Chicago Fire −1.539.7%
Chicago Fire −1.2545.2%
Chicago Fire −1.050.7%
Chicago Fire −0.7556.2%
Chicago Fire −0.561.7%
Chicago Fire −0.2566.9%
Chicago Fire draw no bet (0.0)72.1%
Chicago Fire +0.2577.3%
Chicago Fire +0.582.5%
Chicago Fire +0.7585.2%
Chicago Fire +1.087.9%
Chicago Fire +1.593.3%
Chicago Fire +2.095.7%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Chicago Fire win1.62
Draw4.80
Santos Laguna win5.73
Over 2.51.54
Under 2.52.86
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Chicago Fire wins by more than 1 goals40%
Santos Laguna wins by more than 1 goals7%
