Portuguese Primeira Liga

Club Football Estrela vs Sporting Lisbon prediction

2 – 2

Full-time

Match summary

Club Football Estrela vs Sporting Lisbon (Portuguese Primeira Liga), 09/08/2026, finished 2-2: a draw. Before the match Jarvis gave Club Football Estrela 8%, the draw 15% and Sporting Lisbon 77%; the actual result had a 15% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 0-2. The match had 4 goals; Jarvis expected 2.9.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Club Football Estrela

Draw

15%

Sporting Lisbon

77%

Actual result: Club Football Estrela 2 – 2 Sporting Lisbon · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 15%

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Club Football Estrela, negative favours Sporting Lisbon) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Club Football Estrela - Sporting Lisbon)-1.75

Expected total goals2.93

Expected goals Club Football Estrela / Sporting Lisbon0.59 / 2.34

Both teams to score (yes / no)40.1% / 59.9%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 78.8%

Over 2.5 goals 56.2%

Over 3.5 goals 33.8%

First half

First-half result (Club Football Estrela / draw / Sporting Lisbon)9.6% / 34.1% / 56.2%

A goal in the first half73.6%

Two or more in the first half37.7%

Half-time then full-time

Sporting Lisbon lead at half-time then Sporting Lisbon win52.9%

Level at half-time then Sporting Lisbon win21.1%

Level at half-time then draw9.7%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Club Football Estrela's side

Club Football Estrela −2.01.0%

Club Football Estrela −1.751.4%

Club Football Estrela −1.51.8%

Club Football Estrela −1.253.3%

Club Football Estrela −1.04.9%

Club Football Estrela −0.756.4%

Club Football Estrela −0.58.0%

Club Football Estrela −0.2511.7%

Club Football Estrela draw no bet (0.0)15.5%

Club Football Estrela +0.2519.3%

Club Football Estrela +0.523.0%

Club Football Estrela +0.7529.0%

Club Football Estrela +1.034.9%

Club Football Estrela +1.546.7%

Club Football Estrela +2.058.0%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Club Football Estrela win12.52

Draw6.64

Sporting Lisbon win1.30

Over 2.51.78

Under 2.52.28

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Club Football Estrela wins by more than 1 goals2%

Sporting Lisbon wins by more than 1 goals53%

Match summary

Outcome probability

Probability trajectory · full match