Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
CS Petrocub
42%
Egnatia Rrogozhine
28%
Actual result: CS Petrocub 1 – 1 Egnatia Rrogozhine · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 30%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours CS Petrocub, negative favours Egnatia Rrogozhine) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (CS Petrocub - Egnatia Rrogozhine)+0.28
Expected total goals2.19
Expected goals CS Petrocub / Egnatia Rrogozhine1.24 / 0.95
Both teams to score (yes / no)44.2% / 55.8%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 64.9%
Over 2.5 goals 37.4%
Over 3.5 goals 17.9%
First half
First-half result (CS Petrocub / draw / Egnatia Rrogozhine)30.5% / 47.6% / 21.9%
A goal in the first half62.3%
Two or more in the first half26.3%
Half-time then full-time
CS Petrocub lead at half-time then CS Petrocub win24.7%
Level at half-time then draw20.3%
Level at half-time then CS Petrocub win16.0%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from CS Petrocub's side
CS Petrocub −2.012.7%
CS Petrocub −1.7515.8%
CS Petrocub −1.518.9%
CS Petrocub −1.2524.7%
CS Petrocub −1.030.5%
CS Petrocub −0.7536.3%
CS Petrocub −0.542.0%
CS Petrocub −0.2549.6%
CS Petrocub draw no bet (0.0)57.1%
CS Petrocub +0.2564.6%
CS Petrocub +0.572.1%
CS Petrocub +0.7576.5%
CS Petrocub +1.081.0%
CS Petrocub +1.589.8%
CS Petrocub +2.093.5%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
CS Petrocub win2.38
Draw3.33
Egnatia Rrogozhine win3.58
Over 2.52.67
Under 2.51.60
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
CS Petrocub wins by more than 1 goals19%
Egnatia Rrogozhine wins by more than 1 goals10%
