Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Dundee Utd
18%
Rangers
58%
Actual result: Dundee Utd 1 – 1 Rangers · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 24%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Dundee Utd, negative favours Rangers) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Dundee Utd - Rangers)-0.92
Expected total goals3.00
Expected goals Dundee Utd / Rangers1.04 / 1.96
Both teams to score (yes / no)56.8% / 43.2%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 81.3%
Over 2.5 goals 57.8%
Over 3.5 goals 35.4%
First half
First-half result (Dundee Utd / draw / Rangers)17.4% / 40.2% / 42.3%
A goal in the first half72.9%
Two or more in the first half40.4%
Half-time then full-time
Rangers lead at half-time then Rangers win37.0%
Level at half-time then Rangers win18.6%
Level at half-time then draw14.4%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Dundee Utd's side
Dundee Utd −2.04.5%
Dundee Utd −1.755.8%
Dundee Utd −1.57.1%
Dundee Utd −1.259.9%
Dundee Utd −1.012.8%
Dundee Utd −0.7515.6%
Dundee Utd −0.518.5%
Dundee Utd −0.2524.5%
Dundee Utd draw no bet (0.0)30.5%
Dundee Utd +0.2536.5%
Dundee Utd +0.542.5%
Dundee Utd +0.7548.1%
Dundee Utd +1.053.7%
Dundee Utd +1.565.0%
Dundee Utd +2.074.0%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Dundee Utd win5.41
Draw4.17
Rangers win1.74
Over 2.51.73
Under 2.52.37
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Dundee Utd wins by more than 1 goals7%
Rangers wins by more than 1 goals35%
Corners
Expected total corners10.6
6.5+ corners in the match49%
Cards
Expected total cards2.4
2.5+ cards in the match44%
