Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Elfsborg
60%
Vasteras SK
17%
Actual result: Elfsborg 3 – 0 Vasteras SK · Elfsborg winJarvis gave this outcome: 60% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Elfsborg, negative favours Vasteras SK) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Elfsborg - Vasteras SK)+0.98
Expected total goals2.78
Expected goals Elfsborg / Vasteras SK1.88 / 0.90
Both teams to score (yes / no)51.0% / 49.0%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 77.3%
Over 2.5 goals 52.7%
Over 3.5 goals 30.4%
First half
First-half result (Elfsborg / draw / Vasteras SK)43.4% / 40.5% / 16.1%
A goal in the first half70.8%
Two or more in the first half36.3%
Half-time then full-time
Elfsborg lead at half-time then Elfsborg win38.3%
Level at half-time then Elfsborg win19.3%
Level at half-time then draw14.4%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Elfsborg's side
Elfsborg −2.026.4%
Elfsborg −1.7531.1%
Elfsborg −1.535.8%
Elfsborg −1.2541.8%
Elfsborg −1.047.8%
Elfsborg −0.7553.8%
Elfsborg −0.559.8%
Elfsborg −0.2565.7%
Elfsborg draw no bet (0.0)71.5%
Elfsborg +0.2577.3%
Elfsborg +0.583.2%
Elfsborg +0.7586.0%
Elfsborg +1.088.8%
Elfsborg +1.594.3%
Elfsborg +2.096.5%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Elfsborg win1.67
Draw4.28
Vasteras SK win5.95
Over 2.51.90
Under 2.52.11
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Elfsborg wins by more than 1 goals36%
Vasteras SK wins by more than 1 goals6%
