FIFA World Cup
England vs Argentina prediction
England
1 – 2
Full-time
Argentina
Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
England
35%
Draw
34%
Argentina
31%
Actual result: England 1 – 2 Argentina · Argentina winJarvis gave this outcome: 31%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours England, negative favours Argentina) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (England - Argentina)+0.10
Expected total goals2.27
Expected goals England / Argentina1.18 / 1.09
Both teams to score (yes / no)48.6% / 51.4%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 68.9%
Over 2.5 goals 39.6%
Over 3.5 goals 19.5%
First half
First-half result (England / draw / Argentina)26.6% / 49.8% / 23.7%
A goal in the first half62.1%
Two or more in the first half29.1%
Half-time then full-time
level then draw22.6%
England ahead then England win21.0%
Argentina ahead then Argentina win18.0%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Quoted from England
England give 2 trái (−2.0)10.7%
England give 1 trái 3/4 (−1.75)13.4%
England give 1 trái rưỡi (−1.5)16.1%
England give 1 trái 1/4 (−1.25)21.0%
England give 1 trái (−1.0)25.8%
England give 3/4 trái (−0.75)30.6%
England give nửa trái (−0.5)35.4%
England give 1/4 trái (−0.25)43.9%
Level ball (0.0)52.4%
England receive 1/4 trái (+0.25)60.8%
England receive nửa trái (+0.5)69.3%
England receive 3/4 trái (+0.75)73.7%
England receive 1 trái (+1.0)78.1%
England receive 1 trái rưỡi (+1.5)86.8%
England receive 2 trái (+2.0)91.4%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
England win2.82
Draw2.95
Argentina win3.26
Over 2.52.52
Under 2.51.66
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
England wins by more than 1 goals16%
Argentina wins by more than 1 goals13%
Corners
Expected total corners8.3
6.5+ corners in the match45%
Cards
Expected total cards3.7
2.5+ cards in the match51%