Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Falkirk
17%
Rangers
61%
Actual result: Falkirk 1 – 2 Rangers · Rangers winJarvis gave this outcome: 61% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Falkirk, negative favours Rangers) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Falkirk - Rangers)-1.04
Expected total goals2.96
Expected goals Falkirk / Rangers0.96 / 2.00
Both teams to score (yes / no)54.1% / 45.9%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 80.2%
Over 2.5 goals 56.8%
Over 3.5 goals 34.4%
First half
First-half result (Falkirk / draw / Rangers)16.3% / 39.2% / 44.5%
A goal in the first half72.9%
Two or more in the first half39.2%
Half-time then full-time
Rangers lead at half-time then Rangers win39.3%
Level at half-time then Rangers win19.1%
Level at half-time then draw13.5%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Falkirk's side
Falkirk −2.03.7%
Falkirk −1.754.8%
Falkirk −1.55.9%
Falkirk −1.258.6%
Falkirk −1.011.3%
Falkirk −0.7514.0%
Falkirk −0.516.8%
Falkirk −0.2522.4%
Falkirk draw no bet (0.0)28.0%
Falkirk +0.2533.6%
Falkirk +0.539.2%
Falkirk +0.7545.1%
Falkirk +1.050.9%
Falkirk +1.562.6%
Falkirk +2.072.0%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Falkirk win5.97
Draw4.45
Rangers win1.65
Over 2.51.76
Under 2.52.32
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Falkirk wins by more than 1 goals6%
Rangers wins by more than 1 goals37%
Corners
Expected total corners10.1
6.5+ corners in the match55%
Cards
Expected total cards2.7
2.5+ cards in the match51%
