Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
FC Cincinnati
52%
San Jose Earthquakes
26%
Actual result: FC Cincinnati 4 – 2 San Jose Earthquakes · FC Cincinnati winJarvis gave this outcome: 52% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours FC Cincinnati, negative favours San Jose Earthquakes) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (FC Cincinnati - San Jose Earthquakes)+0.66
Expected total goals3.74
Expected goals FC Cincinnati / San Jose Earthquakes2.20 / 1.54
Both teams to score (yes / no)71.0% / 29.0%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 89.9%
Over 2.5 goals 72.1%
Over 3.5 goals 51.4%
First half
First-half result (FC Cincinnati / draw / San Jose Earthquakes)39.6% / 37.4% / 23.0%
A goal in the first half79.5%
Two or more in the first half52.0%
Half-time then full-time
FC Cincinnati lead at half-time then FC Cincinnati win32.9%
Level at half-time then FC Cincinnati win16.0%
San Jose Earthquakes lead at half-time then San Jose Earthquakes win15.0%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from FC Cincinnati's side
FC Cincinnati −2.024.1%
FC Cincinnati −1.7528.1%
FC Cincinnati −1.532.0%
FC Cincinnati −1.2536.9%
FC Cincinnati −1.041.8%
FC Cincinnati −0.7546.7%
FC Cincinnati −0.551.6%
FC Cincinnati −0.2557.3%
FC Cincinnati draw no bet (0.0)63.0%
FC Cincinnati +0.2568.7%
FC Cincinnati +0.574.4%
FC Cincinnati +0.7577.7%
FC Cincinnati +1.081.0%
FC Cincinnati +1.587.7%
FC Cincinnati +2.091.5%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
FC Cincinnati win1.94
Draw4.39
San Jose Earthquakes win3.90
Over 2.51.39
Under 2.53.59
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
FC Cincinnati wins by more than 1 goals32%
San Jose Earthquakes wins by more than 1 goals12%
