UEFA Champions League Qualifiers

Fenerbahce vs Lyon prediction

1 – 1

Full-time

Match summary

Fenerbahce vs Lyon (Champions League), 19/08/2026, finished 1-1: a draw. Before the match Jarvis gave Fenerbahce 48%, the draw 27% and Lyon 25%; the actual result had a 27% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 2-1. The match had 2 goals; Jarvis expected 2.8.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Fenerbahce

48%

Draw

27%

Lyon

25%

Actual result: Fenerbahce 1 – 1 Lyon · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 27%

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Fenerbahce, negative favours Lyon) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Fenerbahce - Lyon)+0.51

Expected total goals2.80

Expected goals Fenerbahce / Lyon1.66 / 1.14

Both teams to score (yes / no)56.5% / 43.5%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 78.3%

Over 2.5 goals 53.1%

Over 3.5 goals 30.9%

First half

First-half result (Fenerbahce / draw / Lyon)35.8% / 42.8% / 21.4%

A goal in the first half70.4%

Two or more in the first half37.2%

Half-time then full-time

Fenerbahce lead at half-time then Fenerbahce win29.7%

Level at half-time then Fenerbahce win16.7%

Level at half-time then draw16.5%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Fenerbahce's side

Fenerbahce −2.018.7%

Fenerbahce −1.7522.5%

Fenerbahce −1.526.2%

Fenerbahce −1.2531.7%

Fenerbahce −1.037.1%

Fenerbahce −0.7542.6%

Fenerbahce −0.548.0%

Fenerbahce −0.2554.8%

Fenerbahce draw no bet (0.0)61.5%

Fenerbahce +0.2568.3%

Fenerbahce +0.575.0%

Fenerbahce +0.7578.7%

Fenerbahce +1.082.4%

Fenerbahce +1.589.7%

Fenerbahce +2.093.2%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Fenerbahce win2.08

Draw3.70

Lyon win4.01

Over 2.51.88

Under 2.52.13

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Fenerbahce wins by more than 1 goals26%

Lyon wins by more than 1 goals10%

Corners

Expected total corners10.1

6.5+ corners in the match56%

Cards

Expected total cards2.6

2.5+ cards in the match48%

Probability trajectory · full match

Next fixtures of both teams

Fenerbahce

vs Slavia PragueTue 20/10, 23:45 GMT+7 · Champions League 26-27
vs LiverpoolThu 05/11, 00:45 GMT+7 · Champions League 26-27

Lyon

vs NiceMon 19/10, 01:45 GMT+7 · Ligue 1 26-27
vs TSG Hoffenheim (away)Fri 23/10, 02:00 GMT+7 · Europa League 26-27

Other matches on 19/08 (GMT+7)

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.

Champions League table, latest

#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Paris Saint-Germain	2	+7	6
2	Barcelona	2	+7	6
3	Aston Villa	2	+7	6
...
27	VIKING FK	2	-2	1
28	Fenerbahce	2	-6	1
29	Internazionale	2	-2	0

See the full Champions League table