Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
France
88%
Draw
8%
Iraq
4%
Actual result: France 3 – 0 Iraq · France winJarvis gave this outcome: 88% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours France, negative favours Iraq) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (France - Iraq)+2.48
Expected total goals3.26
Expected goals France / Iraq2.87 / 0.39
Both teams to score (yes / no)29.8% / 70.2%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 82.8%
Over 2.5 goals 63.3%
Over 3.5 goals 41.1%
First half
First-half result (France / draw / Iraq)67.5% / 26.5% / 6.0%
A goal in the first half78.0%
Two or more in the first half42.1%
Half-time then full-time
France lead at half-time then France win65.4%
Level at half-time then France win19.5%
Level at half-time then draw5.4%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from France's side
France −2.057.7%
France −1.7563.3%
France −1.569.0%
France −1.2573.8%
France −1.078.6%
France −0.7583.5%
France −0.588.3%
France −0.2590.3%
France draw no bet (0.0)92.2%
France +0.2594.2%
France +0.596.1%
France +0.7597.0%
France +1.097.8%
France +1.599.5%
France +2.099.7%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
France win1.13
Draw12.81
Iraq win25.81
Over 2.51.58
Under 2.52.72
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Most likely scorelines
2–0
15.8%
3–0
15.1%
1–0
11.9%
4–0
10.8%
5–0
6.2%
2–1
6.2%
Goal margin
France wins by more than 1 goals69%
Iraq wins by more than 1 goals0%