Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
New Zealand
17%
Draw
24%
Egypt
60%
Actual result: New Zealand 1 – 3 Egypt · Egypt winJarvis gave this outcome: 60% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours New Zealand, negative favours Egypt) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (New Zealand - Egypt)-0.94
Expected total goals2.50
Expected goals New Zealand / Egypt0.78 / 1.72
Both teams to score (yes / no)44.5% / 55.5%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 71.3%
Over 2.5 goals 45.6%
Over 3.5 goals 24.2%
First half
First-half result (New Zealand / draw / Egypt)15.5% / 41.9% / 42.6%
A goal in the first half67.5%
Two or more in the first half31.0%
Half-time then full-time
Egypt lead at half-time then Egypt win37.6%
Level at half-time then Egypt win19.7%
Level at half-time then draw15.4%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from New Zealand's side
New Zealand −2.03.0%
New Zealand −1.754.0%
New Zealand −1.54.9%
New Zealand −1.257.9%
New Zealand −1.010.8%
New Zealand −0.7513.7%
New Zealand −0.516.7%
New Zealand −0.2522.6%
New Zealand draw no bet (0.0)28.4%
New Zealand +0.2534.3%
New Zealand +0.540.2%
New Zealand +0.7546.7%
New Zealand +1.053.2%
New Zealand +1.566.2%
New Zealand +2.075.4%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
New Zealand win6.00
Draw4.25
Egypt win1.67
Over 2.52.19
Under 2.51.84
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Most likely scorelines
0–1
14.1%
0–2
12.1%
1–1
11.0%
1–2
9.5%
0–0
8.2%
0–3
7.0%
Goal margin
New Zealand wins by more than 1 goals5%
Egypt wins by more than 1 goals34%