Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Germany
92%
Draw
5%
Curaçao
3%
Actual result: Germany 7 – 1 Curaçao · Germany winJarvis gave this outcome: 92% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Germany, negative favours Curaçao) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Germany - Curaçao)+3.20
Expected total goals4.33
Expected goals Germany / Curaçao3.76 / 0.57
Both teams to score (yes / no)41.6% / 58.4%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 92.4%
Over 2.5 goals 80.6%
Over 3.5 goals 62.8%
First half
First-half result (Germany / draw / Curaçao)75.1% / 18.7% / 6.3%
A goal in the first half87.0%
Two or more in the first half56.7%
Half-time then full-time
Germany lead at half-time then Germany win73.1%
Level at half-time then Germany win15.0%
Curaçao lead at half-time then Germany win3.2%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Germany's side
Germany −2.070.1%
Germany −1.7574.6%
Germany −1.579.1%
Germany −1.2582.4%
Germany −1.085.6%
Germany −0.7588.9%
Germany −0.592.2%
Germany −0.2593.4%
Germany draw no bet (0.0)94.6%
Germany +0.2595.8%
Germany +0.597.1%
Germany +0.7597.7%
Germany +1.098.3%
Germany +1.599.5%
Germany +2.099.7%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Germany win1.08
Draw20.38
Curaçao win34.20
Over 2.51.24
Under 2.55.15
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Most likely scorelines
3–0
11.7%
4–0
11.0%
2–0
9.3%
5–0
8.3%
3–1
6.6%
4–1
6.2%
Goal margin
Germany wins by more than 1 goals79%
Curaçao wins by more than 1 goals0%