Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Ivory Coast
27%
Draw
33%
Ecuador
40%
Actual result: Ivory Coast 1 – 0 Ecuador · Ivory Coast winJarvis gave this outcome: 27%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Ivory Coast, negative favours Ecuador) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Ivory Coast - Ecuador)-0.25
Expected total goals2.33
Expected goals Ivory Coast / Ecuador1.04 / 1.29
Both teams to score (yes / no)49.5% / 50.5%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 70.3%
Over 2.5 goals 41.3%
Over 3.5 goals 20.7%
First half
First-half result (Ivory Coast / draw / Ecuador)21.7% / 49.0% / 29.3%
A goal in the first half63.1%
Two or more in the first half30.2%
Half-time then full-time
Ecuador lead at half-time then Ecuador win23.9%
Level at half-time then draw21.9%
Ivory Coast lead at half-time then Ivory Coast win15.9%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Ivory Coast's side
Ivory Coast −2.07.3%
Ivory Coast −1.759.3%
Ivory Coast −1.511.3%
Ivory Coast −1.2515.3%
Ivory Coast −1.019.3%
Ivory Coast −0.7523.2%
Ivory Coast −0.527.2%
Ivory Coast −0.2535.5%
Ivory Coast draw no bet (0.0)43.8%
Ivory Coast +0.2552.0%
Ivory Coast +0.560.3%
Ivory Coast +0.7565.4%
Ivory Coast +1.070.5%
Ivory Coast +1.580.8%
Ivory Coast +2.087.0%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Ivory Coast win3.67
Draw3.03
Ecuador win2.52
Over 2.52.42
Under 2.51.70
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Most likely scorelines
1–1
15.7%
0–0
12.3%
0–1
9.9%
1–2
8.4%
0–2
8.1%
1–0
7.5%
Goal margin
Ivory Coast wins by more than 1 goals11%
Ecuador wins by more than 1 goals19%