Spanish Segunda Division

Girona vs Leganes prediction

1 – 1

Full-time

Match summary

Girona vs Leganes (Spanish Segunda Division), 17/08/2026, finished 1-1: a draw. Before the match Jarvis gave Girona 61%, the draw 24% and Leganes 15%; the actual result had a 24% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 2-0. The match had 2 goals; Jarvis expected 2.6.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Girona

61%

Draw

24%

Leganes

15%

Actual result: Girona 1 – 1 Leganes · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 24%

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Girona, negative favours Leganes) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Girona - Leganes)+1.03

Expected total goals2.63

Expected goals Girona / Leganes1.83 / 0.80

Both teams to score (yes / no)47.4% / 52.6%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 75.0%

Over 2.5 goals 49.0%

Over 3.5 goals 27.2%

First half

First-half result (Girona / draw / Leganes)43.4% / 42.2% / 14.3%

A goal in the first half68.5%

Two or more in the first half34.1%

Half-time then full-time

Girona lead at half-time then Girona win38.9%

Level at half-time then Girona win20.2%

Level at half-time then draw15.7%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Girona's side

Girona −2.026.7%

Girona −1.7531.5%

Girona −1.536.3%

Girona −1.2542.4%

Girona −1.048.5%

Girona −0.7554.6%

Girona −0.560.7%

Girona −0.2566.8%

Girona draw no bet (0.0)72.9%

Girona +0.2579.0%

Girona +0.585.1%

Girona +0.7587.7%

Girona +1.090.2%

Girona +1.595.2%

Girona +2.097.1%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Girona win1.65

Draw4.09

Leganes win6.72

Over 2.52.04

Under 2.51.96

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Girona wins by more than 1 goals36%

Leganes wins by more than 1 goals5%

Probability trajectory · full match

Other matches on 17/08 (GMT+7)

Espanyol vs Levante00:00 · La Liga3–0

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.