Match summary
Iran vs New Zealand (World Cup), 16/06/2026, finished 2-2: a draw.
Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Iran
51%
Draw
27%
New Zealand
21%
Actual result: Iran 2 – 2 New Zealand · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 27%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Iran, negative favours New Zealand) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Iran - New Zealand)+0.63
Expected total goals2.50
Expected goals Iran / New Zealand1.57 / 0.93
Both teams to score (yes / no)49.1% / 50.9%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 72.3%
Over 2.5 goals 45.6%
Over 3.5 goals 24.2%
First half
First-half result (Iran / draw / New Zealand)36.9% / 44.5% / 18.6%
A goal in the first half66.7%
Two or more in the first half31.8%
Half-time then full-time
Iran lead at half-time then Iran win31.5%
Level at half-time then Iran win18.1%
Level at half-time then draw17.7%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Iran's side
Iran −2.019.3%
Iran −1.7523.3%
Iran −1.527.2%
Iran −1.2533.2%
Iran −1.039.1%
Iran −0.7545.1%
Iran −0.551.0%
Iran −0.2557.9%
Iran draw no bet (0.0)64.8%
Iran +0.2571.6%
Iran +0.578.5%
Iran +0.7582.0%
Iran +1.085.4%
Iran +1.592.3%
Iran +2.095.1%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Iran win1.96
Draw3.64
New Zealand win4.66
Over 2.52.19
Under 2.51.84
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Most likely scorelines
1–1
13.1%
1–0
11.8%
2–0
10.1%
2–1
9.4%
0–0
9.3%
0–1
6.6%
Goal margin
Iran wins by more than 1 goals27%
New Zealand wins by more than 1 goals8%
Probability trajectory · full match
Other matches on 16/06 (GMT+7)
The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.