Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Iraq
6%
Draw
13%
Norway
81%
Actual result: Iraq 1 – 4 Norway · Norway winJarvis gave this outcome: 81% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Iraq, negative favours Norway) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Iraq - Norway)-1.84
Expected total goals2.54
Expected goals Iraq / Norway0.35 / 2.19
Both teams to score (yes / no)25.0% / 75.0%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 70.9%
Over 2.5 goals 46.7%
Over 3.5 goals 25.1%
First half
First-half result (Iraq / draw / Norway)6.9% / 35.0% / 58.1%
A goal in the first half69.1%
Two or more in the first half30.7%
Half-time then full-time
Norway lead at half-time then Norway win55.6%
Level at half-time then Norway win22.6%
Level at half-time then draw10.0%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Iraq's side
Iraq −2.00.4%
Iraq −1.750.5%
Iraq −1.50.7%
Iraq −1.252.0%
Iraq −1.03.3%
Iraq −0.754.6%
Iraq −0.55.9%
Iraq −0.259.1%
Iraq draw no bet (0.0)12.3%
Iraq +0.2515.4%
Iraq +0.518.6%
Iraq +0.7525.1%
Iraq +1.031.6%
Iraq +1.544.6%
Iraq +2.056.7%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Iraq win17.04
Draw7.83
Norway win1.23
Over 2.52.14
Under 2.51.88
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Most likely scorelines
0–2
18.9%
0–1
18.5%
0–3
13.8%
0–4
7.6%
0–0
6.7%
1–2
6.6%
Goal margin
Iraq wins by more than 1 goals1%
Norway wins by more than 1 goals55%