English Sky Bet League 1

Luton vs Stockport prediction

2 – 0

Full-time

Match summary

Luton vs Stockport (English Sky Bet League 1), 03/09/2026, finished 2-0: Luton won. Before the match Jarvis gave Luton 34%, the draw 27% and Stockport 39%; the actual result had a 34% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 1-2. The match had 2 goals; Jarvis expected 3.1.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Luton

34%

Draw

27%

Stockport

39%

Actual result: Luton 2 – 0 Stockport · Luton winJarvis gave this outcome: 34%

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Luton, negative favours Stockport) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Luton - Stockport)-0.11

Expected total goals3.13

Expected goals Luton / Stockport1.51 / 1.62

Both teams to score (yes / no)63.9% / 36.1%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 83.3%

Over 2.5 goals 60.4%

Over 3.5 goals 38.1%

First half

First-half result (Luton / draw / Stockport)27.8% / 41.4% / 30.8%

A goal in the first half73.9%

Two or more in the first half42.7%

Half-time then full-time

Stockport lead at half-time then Stockport win23.7%

Luton lead at half-time then Luton win20.5%

Level at half-time then draw15.5%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Luton's side

Luton −2.011.8%

Luton −1.7514.4%

Luton −1.517.0%

Luton −1.2521.4%

Luton −1.025.7%

Luton −0.7530.0%

Luton −0.534.3%

Luton −0.2541.0%

Luton draw no bet (0.0)47.6%

Luton +0.2554.3%

Luton +0.560.9%

Luton +0.7565.6%

Luton +1.070.3%

Luton +1.579.6%

Luton +2.085.6%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Luton win2.91

Draw3.76

Stockport win2.56

Over 2.51.65

Under 2.52.53

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Luton wins by more than 1 goals17%

Stockport wins by more than 1 goals20%

Match summary

Outcome probability

Probability trajectory · full match