FIFA World Cup
Mexico vs England prediction
Mexico
2 – 3
Full-time
England
Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Mexico
30%
Draw
31%
England
39%
Actual result: Mexico 2 – 3 England · England winJarvis gave this outcome: 39% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Mexico, negative favours England) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Mexico - England)-0.18
Expected total goals2.01
Expected goals Mexico / England0.92 / 1.09
Both teams to score (yes / no)40.3% / 59.7%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 60.1%
Over 2.5 goals 32.6%
Over 3.5 goals 14.4%
First half
First-half result (Mexico / draw / England)22.4% / 49.7% / 27.9%
A goal in the first half59.2%
Two or more in the first half23.2%
Half-time then full-time
England ahead then England win22.3%
level then draw22.1%
Mexico ahead then Mexico win16.5%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Quoted from Mexico
Mexico give 2 trái (−2.0)6.6%
Mexico give 1 trái 3/4 (−1.75)8.6%
Mexico give 1 trái rưỡi (−1.5)10.5%
Mexico give 1 trái 1/4 (−1.25)15.3%
Mexico give 1 trái (−1.0)20.1%
Mexico give 3/4 trái (−0.75)24.9%
Mexico give nửa trái (−0.5)29.6%
Mexico give 1/4 trái (−0.25)37.5%
Level ball (0.0)45.4%
Mexico receive 1/4 trái (+0.25)53.2%
Mexico receive nửa trái (+0.5)61.1%
Mexico receive 3/4 trái (+0.75)66.8%
Mexico receive 1 trái (+1.0)72.6%
Mexico receive 1 trái rưỡi (+1.5)84.0%
Mexico receive 2 trái (+2.0)89.5%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Mexico win3.37
Draw3.18
England win2.57
Over 2.53.07
Under 2.51.48
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Most likely scorelines
0–1
14.2%
1–1
13.9%
0–0
13.8%
1–0
11.9%
0–2
8.0%
1–2
7.3%
Goal margin
Mexico wins by more than 1 goals11%
England wins by more than 1 goals16%
Corners
Expected total corners8.6
6.5+ corners in the match48%
Cards
Expected total cards3.2
2.5+ cards in the match39%