FIFA World Cup
Portugal vs Spain prediction
Portugal
0 – 1
Full-time
Spain
Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Portugal
21%
Draw
28%
Spain
51%
Actual result: Portugal 0 – 1 Spain · Spain winJarvis gave this outcome: 51% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Portugal, negative favours Spain) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Portugal - Spain)-0.62
Expected total goals2.39
Expected goals Portugal / Spain0.89 / 1.51
Both teams to score (yes / no)46.5% / 53.5%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 69.7%
Over 2.5 goals 42.8%
Over 3.5 goals 22.0%
First half
First-half result (Portugal / draw / Spain)18.3% / 45.0% / 36.6%
A goal in the first half65.4%
Two or more in the first half29.8%
Half-time then full-time
Spain ahead then Spain win31.2%
level then Spain win18.2%
level then draw18.1%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Quoted from Portugal
Portugal give 2 trái (−2.0)4.6%
Portugal give 1 trái 3/4 (−1.75)5.9%
Portugal give 1 trái rưỡi (−1.5)7.3%
Portugal give 1 trái 1/4 (−1.25)10.8%
Portugal give 1 trái (−1.0)14.4%
Portugal give 3/4 trái (−0.75)17.9%
Portugal give nửa trái (−0.5)21.4%
Portugal give 1/4 trái (−0.25)28.3%
Level ball (0.0)35.2%
Portugal receive 1/4 trái (+0.25)42.1%
Portugal receive nửa trái (+0.5)49.0%
Portugal receive 3/4 trái (+0.75)55.1%
Portugal receive 1 trái (+1.0)61.2%
Portugal receive 1 trái rưỡi (+1.5)73.5%
Portugal receive 2 trái (+2.0)81.4%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Portugal win4.67
Draw3.63
Spain win1.96
Over 2.52.33
Under 2.51.75
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Most likely scorelines
0–1
13.0%
1–1
12.9%
0–2
10.4%
0–0
9.9%
1–2
9.2%
1–0
7.4%
Goal margin
Portugal wins by more than 1 goals7%
Spain wins by more than 1 goals27%
Corners
Expected total corners9.6
6.5+ corners in the match50%
Cards
Expected total cards3.2
2.5+ cards in the match39%