FIFA World Cup
Netherlands vs Morocco prediction
Netherlands
1 – 1
Full-time
Morocco
Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Netherlands
42%
Draw
31%
Morocco
26%
Actual result: Netherlands 1 – 1 Morocco · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 31%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Netherlands, negative favours Morocco) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Netherlands - Morocco)+0.33
Expected total goals2.50
Expected goals Netherlands / Morocco1.42 / 1.08
Both teams to score (yes / no)52.5% / 47.5%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 73.7%
Over 2.5 goals 45.6%
Over 3.5 goals 24.2%
First half
First-half result (Netherlands / draw / Morocco)31.2% / 47.2% / 21.6%
A goal in the first half65.6%
Two or more in the first half32.9%
Half-time then full-time
Netherlands ahead then Netherlands win25.6%
level then draw20.3%
level then Netherlands win16.1%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Quoted from Netherlands
Netherlands give 2 trái (−2.0)14.8%
Netherlands give 1 trái 3/4 (−1.75)18.1%
Netherlands give 1 trái rưỡi (−1.5)21.4%
Netherlands give 1 trái 1/4 (−1.25)26.6%
Netherlands give 1 trái (−1.0)31.8%
Netherlands give 3/4 trái (−0.75)37.0%
Netherlands give nửa trái (−0.5)42.2%
Netherlands give 1/4 trái (−0.25)50.0%
Level ball (0.0)57.8%
Netherlands receive 1/4 trái (+0.25)65.7%
Netherlands receive nửa trái (+0.5)73.5%
Netherlands receive 3/4 trái (+0.75)77.4%
Netherlands receive 1 trái (+1.0)81.2%
Netherlands receive 1 trái rưỡi (+1.5)88.8%
Netherlands receive 2 trái (+2.0)92.8%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Netherlands win2.37
Draw3.19
Morocco win3.78
Over 2.52.19
Under 2.51.84
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Most likely scorelines
1–1
15.0%
0–0
10.6%
1–0
9.2%
2–1
8.9%
2–0
8.2%
1–2
6.8%
Goal margin
Netherlands wins by more than 1 goals21%
Morocco wins by more than 1 goals11%