Italian Coppa Italia

Palermo vs Lecce prediction

2 – 0

Full-time

Match summary

Palermo vs Lecce (Italian Coppa Italia), 18/08/2026, finished 2-0: Palermo won. Before the match Jarvis gave Palermo 42%, the draw 30% and Lecce 28%; the actual result had a 42% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 2-1. The match had 2 goals; Jarvis expected 2.5.

Next for Lecce: Udinese (Sun 18/10, 17:30 GMT+7)

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Palermo

42%

Draw

30%

Lecce

28%

Actual result: Palermo 2 – 0 Lecce · Palermo winJarvis gave this outcome: 42% ✓

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Palermo, negative favours Lecce) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Palermo - Lecce)+0.29

Expected total goals2.45

Expected goals Palermo / Lecce1.37 / 1.08

Both teams to score (yes / no)51.1% / 48.9%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 72.0%

Over 2.5 goals 44.5%

Over 3.5 goals 23.3%

First half

First-half result (Palermo / draw / Lecce)30.9% / 46.6% / 22.5%

A goal in the first half65.5%

Two or more in the first half31.6%

Half-time then full-time

Palermo lead at half-time then Palermo win25.1%

Level at half-time then draw19.6%

Lecce lead at half-time then Lecce win16.1%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Palermo's side

Palermo −2.014.0%

Palermo −1.7517.2%

Palermo −1.520.4%

Palermo −1.2525.7%

Palermo −1.031.1%

Palermo −0.7536.4%

Palermo −0.541.7%

Palermo −0.2549.3%

Palermo draw no bet (0.0)56.9%

Palermo +0.2564.5%

Palermo +0.572.1%

Palermo +0.7576.2%

Palermo +1.080.3%

Palermo +1.588.5%

Palermo +2.092.5%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Palermo win2.40

Draw3.29

Lecce win3.58

Over 2.52.25

Under 2.51.80

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Palermo wins by more than 1 goals20%

Lecce wins by more than 1 goals11%

Probability trajectory · full match

Next fixtures of both teams

Lecce

vs Udinese (away)Sun 18/10, 17:30 GMT+7 · Serie A 26-27
vs JuventusMon 26/10, 00:00 GMT+7 · Serie A 26-27

Other matches on 18/08 (GMT+7)

Deportivo vs Elche02:00 · La Liga1–1

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.