UEFA Super Cup

Paris St-G vs Aston Villa prediction

2 – 1

Full-time

Match summary

Paris St-G vs Aston Villa (UEFA Super Cup), 13/08/2026, finished 2-1: Paris St-G won. Before the match Jarvis gave Paris St-G 56%, the draw 25% and Aston Villa 19%; the actual result had a 56% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 2-0. The match had 3 goals; Jarvis expected 2.9.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Paris St-G

56%

Draw

25%

Aston Villa

19%

Actual result: Paris St-G 2 – 1 Aston Villa · Paris St-G winJarvis gave this outcome: 56% ✓

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Paris St-G, negative favours Aston Villa) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Paris St-G - Aston Villa)+0.86

Expected total goals2.85

Expected goals Paris St-G / Aston Villa1.86 / 1.00

Both teams to score (yes / no)54.4% / 45.6%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 78.9%

Over 2.5 goals 54.4%

Over 3.5 goals 32.0%

First half

First-half result (Paris St-G / draw / Aston Villa)41.3% / 41.2% / 17.5%

A goal in the first half71.3%

Two or more in the first half37.9%

Half-time then full-time

Paris St-G lead at half-time then Paris St-G win35.9%

Level at half-time then Paris St-G win18.6%

Level at half-time then draw15.1%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Paris St-G's side

Paris St-G −2.024.5%

Paris St-G −1.7528.9%

Paris St-G −1.533.3%

Paris St-G −1.2539.1%

Paris St-G −1.044.8%

Paris St-G −0.7550.6%

Paris St-G −0.556.4%

Paris St-G −0.2562.5%

Paris St-G draw no bet (0.0)68.7%

Paris St-G +0.2574.9%

Paris St-G +0.581.1%

Paris St-G +0.7584.1%

Paris St-G +1.087.0%

Paris St-G +1.593.0%

Paris St-G +2.095.5%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Paris St-G win1.77

Draw4.05

Aston Villa win5.29

Over 2.51.84

Under 2.52.19

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Paris St-G wins by more than 1 goals33%

Aston Villa wins by more than 1 goals7%

Corners

Expected total corners9.6

6.5+ corners in the match49%

Cards

Expected total cards2.9

2.5+ cards in the match56%

Probability trajectory · full match

Next fixtures of both teams

Paris St-G

vs BarcelonaWed 21/10, 02:00 GMT+7 · Champions League 26-27
vs LyonMon 26/10, 02:45 GMT+7 · Ligue 1 26-27

Aston Villa

vs VIKING FKThu 22/10, 02:00 GMT+7 · Champions League 26-27
vs Manchester CitySat 24/10, 18:30 GMT+7 · Premier League 26-27