Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
QPR
53%
Cardiff
23%
Actual result: QPR 2 – 1 Cardiff · QPR winJarvis gave this outcome: 53% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours QPR, negative favours Cardiff) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (QPR - Cardiff)+0.71
Expected total goals3.15
Expected goals QPR / Cardiff1.93 / 1.22
Both teams to score (yes / no)61.4% / 38.6%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 83.4%
Over 2.5 goals 60.9%
Over 3.5 goals 38.6%
First half
First-half result (QPR / draw / Cardiff)39.6% / 39.9% / 20.5%
A goal in the first half74.4%
Two or more in the first half42.7%
Half-time then full-time
QPR lead at half-time then QPR win33.5%
Level at half-time then QPR win17.1%
Level at half-time then draw14.2%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from QPR's side
QPR −2.023.1%
QPR −1.7527.2%
QPR −1.531.3%
QPR −1.2536.6%
QPR −1.042.0%
QPR −0.7547.4%
QPR −0.552.8%
QPR −0.2558.9%
QPR draw no bet (0.0)65.0%
QPR +0.2571.1%
QPR +0.577.2%
QPR +0.7580.5%
QPR +1.083.8%
QPR +1.590.4%
QPR +2.093.7%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
QPR win1.89
Draw4.09
Cardiff win4.39
Over 2.51.64
Under 2.52.56
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
QPR wins by more than 1 goals31%
Cardiff wins by more than 1 goals10%
