Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Saudi Arabia
12%
Draw
22%
Uruguay
66%
Actual result: Saudi Arabia 1 – 1 Uruguay · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 22%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Saudi Arabia, negative favours Uruguay) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Saudi Arabia - Uruguay)-1.22
Expected total goals2.50
Expected goals Saudi Arabia / Uruguay0.64 / 1.86
Both teams to score (yes / no)40.2% / 59.8%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 71.5%
Over 2.5 goals 45.6%
Over 3.5 goals 24.2%
First half
First-half result (Saudi Arabia / draw / Uruguay)12.0% / 41.2% / 46.9%
A goal in the first half67.3%
Two or more in the first half31.2%
Half-time then full-time
Uruguay lead at half-time then Uruguay win42.8%
Level at half-time then Uruguay win21.4%
Level at half-time then draw14.7%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Saudi Arabia's side
Saudi Arabia −2.01.8%
Saudi Arabia −1.752.4%
Saudi Arabia −1.53.0%
Saudi Arabia −1.255.2%
Saudi Arabia −1.07.4%
Saudi Arabia −0.759.7%
Saudi Arabia −0.511.9%
Saudi Arabia −0.2517.3%
Saudi Arabia draw no bet (0.0)22.8%
Saudi Arabia +0.2528.2%
Saudi Arabia +0.533.7%
Saudi Arabia +0.7540.2%
Saudi Arabia +1.046.7%
Saudi Arabia +1.559.8%
Saudi Arabia +2.070.1%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Saudi Arabia win8.43
Draw4.58
Uruguay win1.51
Over 2.52.19
Under 2.51.84
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Most likely scorelines
0–1
15.0%
0–2
14.2%
1–1
10.0%
1–2
9.1%
0–3
8.8%
0–0
8.5%
Goal margin
Saudi Arabia wins by more than 1 goals3%
Uruguay wins by more than 1 goals40%